The PRC Sees ‘Window of Opportunity’ With Europe

Executive Summary:

• Beijing sees a strategic window of opportunity to drive a wedge between the United States and Europe and improve its economic and trading relationship with the European Union.
• Officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Party’s International Department have used a number of bilateral channels in the last two months to encourage European interlocutors to promote Beijing’s preferences at the European level.
• Some experts in the People’s Republic of China are skeptical that Beijing can successfully persuade Europe to pivot away from the United States but nevertheless view attempting to do so as a worthwhile course of action.
• Certain statements from senior EU officials and other EU member-state politicians indicate a willingness to entertain Beijing’s overtures.

“A certain strategic window” (一定的战略窗口期). That is how two scholars describe the opportunity for the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to deepen its ties with Europe amid current tensions with the United States. The argument comes from an article published in the journal World Affairs (世界知识) in which the authors—one of whom runs the Centre for European Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai—write that the international system is “undergoing the most profound strategic transformation since the collapse of the bipolar pattern” (正经历着自两极格局瓦解以来最深刻的战略转型). They suggest that the PRC and Europe might be able to get over their “values barrier” (价值观藩篱) and use their economic and trade exchanges as “ballast” (压舱石) to help alleviate Europe’s current crisis (World Affairs, April 1).

This view is one of many currently being debated within the PRC system, but it has traction. Some more measured voices in the PRC’s academic community evince doubts about the Beijing’s ability to capitalize on this perceived opportunity. However, there is little disagreement over whether or not this strategy should be pursued. A survey of high-level statements and bilateral talking points between the PRC and European governments and the European Union (EU) indicate that Beijing has intensified its long-running attempts to divide the continent’s democracies from the United States. From the European side, certain reported statements suggest a degree of receptivity to these overtures.

Beijing Pushes Message to EU via Member States

The tone for Beijing’s approach to Europe was set by President Xi Jinping in a January 15 call with European Council President António Costa—the week before Donald Trump was inaugurated and almost three months prior to the White House’s series of tariff announcements were made. In the readout published by the People’s Daily, Xi made three key points. First, that the PRC has always recognized Europe as an important pole in a multipolar world and supports the strategic autonomy of the European Union; second, that the PRC and Europe have no fundamental conflicts of interest or geopolitical contradictions and are partners that can contribute to each other’s successes; and third, that the tougher and more complicated the international situation is, the more the PRC and Europe must “uphold the original spirit of establishing diplomatic relations” (秉持建交初心). The readout adds that Costa agreed the two “should cooperate rather than compete” (应当合作而不是竞争) (People’s Daily, January 15).

This approach to relations with Europe has been echoed by two sets of officials in the weeks and months since the Xi-Costa call: those from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, including PRC ambassadors to European countries, and top officials from the International Department of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee in their meetings with European politicians. [1]

A common theme that stands out in bilateral communications is Beijing’s attempt to persuade its interlocutors to advocate on the PRC’s behalf at the European level. For instance, in his meeting with France’s ambassador to the PRC Bertrand Lortholary, Liu Jianchao (刘建超), the head of the International Department, said, “France is an important member of the European Union, and we hope that France will play an active role in the EU and promote the development of China-EU relations” (法国是欧盟重要成员国，希望法在欧盟内发挥积极作用，推动中欧关系向好发展) (International Department [ID], March 21). Liu has made a similar argument to the Portuguese Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel (“China is willing to strengthen multilateral cooperation with the Portuguese side to promote the development of China-EU relations” (中方愿同葡方加强多边协作，推动中欧关系发展)), to the Finns (“I hope that the Finnish side will play an active role in promoting the healthy and stable development of China-EU relations”), and to the Czech Communist Party (“I hope that the Czech side correctly views and will play a positive role in … developing China-European relations” (希望捷方正确看待并为推动 … 中欧关系发展发挥积极作用)) (ID, February 18, March 25; April 7). Some interlocutors—according to International Department readouts—appear happy to advance the Party’s wishes. Member of the European Parliament Barry Cowen “expressed his willingness to make positive efforts to promote the European Parliament’s understanding of and engagement with China” in a meeting with the PRC ambassador to Ireland; while Rangel told Liu that Portugal is “ready to contribute to the development of … Europe-China relations” (愿为欧中关系 … 发展作出努力) (FMPRC, March 8; ID, March 25).

Several ambassadors pubished op-eds in March to spread this message more widely among European populations. Ambassador to Cyprus Liu Yantao (刘彦涛) wrote an article in Cyprus Mail declaring that the PRC is “willing to work with Cyprus and the EU to set an example in upholding multilateralism” (Embassy of PRC to Cyprus, March 20). Feng Biao (冯飚), Beijing’s man in Prague, wrote that the PRC is “willing to join hands with Europe to jointly safeguard the trade and economic order” (愿与欧洲携手共同维护经贸秩序) (Embassy of PRC in Czech, March 24). Other op-eds, such as those from the head of the PRC mission to the EU and the PRC’s Consul General in Belfast, criticize Washington’s actions while promoting Beijing as a reliable and stable partner (FMPRC, March 25, March 28).

While the PRC is pushing European partners to advocate for its interests at the local level, it is doing the same with the EU’s leadership, as well as pushing the EU to support its efforts at the global level. Some of this involves a degree of diplomatic flattery. When Liu Jianchao received Niclas Kvarnström, Managing Director for Asia and the Pacific for the European External Action Service, in Beijing, he described the PRC and Europe as “two leading global powers” (中欧作为全球两大力量) (ID, February 12). Similarly, Premier Li Qiang (李强), in a call with President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, described the PRC and the EU as “each other’s most important trading partners” (彼此最重要的贸易伙伴) (People’s Daily, April 9). This latter characterization is not true—the United States remains Europe’s largest trading partner (European Commission, accessed April 11). PRC Permanent Representative to the UN Ambassador Fu Cong (傅聪) has also stated that the PRC has confidence in the EU, hopes that it will become a reliable partner, and is ready to work with the EU and its member states to deepen cooperation in the UN and other multilateral fora (FMPRC, March 11).

EU Appears Open to PRC Trade Demands

PRC academics and experts are undecided about the prospects for success in the PRC’s overtures to Europe. In the World Affairs article cited above, the two authors admit that, even if practical and pragmatic cooperation can be expanded to the fields of trade and economics, climate, digital and related economic governance, there is a ceiling to potential cooperation with the EU “due to the ‘de-risking’ mentality of the European side” (囿于欧方“去风险”思维). Moreover, they argue that history has also repeatedly proved that such strategic windows “ultimately fail to change Europe’s strategic dependence on the United States on the core issues” (最终未能改变欧洲在核心议题上对美的战略依附). This view is shared by others, such as Chief China Economist at Morgan Stanley Robin Xing (邢自强), who said this week that European concerns about PRC surplus capacity flooding into their markets was “somewhat reasonable” (具有一定合理性) and could lead these countries to roll out more protectionist policies (WeChat/China Macroeconomic Forum CMF, April 10). This still leaves significant space for gains in the PRC’s trade relationship with Europe, however.

As other experts argue, Beijing should still do its best to leverage countries’ negative perceptions of U.S. actions to improve its own terms of trade with Europe. For example, Zhao Hao (赵浩), a professor of management at China Europe International Business School (CEIBS), argues that the PRC “should make good relations with other traditional export markets to let them know the importance of the Chinese market and not to easily side with the United States” (中国应该和其他传统出口市场搞好关系，让它们知道中国市场的重要性，别轻易站到美国一边) (CEIBS, April 7). Peking University Professor Huang Yiping and semiconductor specialist Gu Wenjun (顾文军) have made similar arguments (WeChat/ICWise Research, April 8; Project Syndicate, April 11). Meanwhile, influential blogger Ren Yi (任意; aka Chairman Rabbit (兔主席)) has noted that Beijing is already pursuing such discussions. As he says, “the next step should be to actively and widely ‘launch an attack’” (下一步需要主动的、广泛“出击”) (WeChat/Chairman Rabbit, April 10; Sinification, April 10).

Beijing may already be making headway on trade. Ever since Trump was inaugurated, observers have warned that Europe could be preparing to pivot toward the PRC, citing a softening of von der Leyen’s speech at the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos. Language was added at the last minute on using the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations as “an opportunity to engage and deepen our relationship with China—and where possible even to expand our trade and investment ties”—language that was reiterated the following week by European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Maroš Šefčovič (GMF, February 4). Since then, Šefčovič has repeated this desire to deepen economic and trade cooperation with the PRC with both Vice Premier He Lifeng (何立峰) and Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao (王文涛) (People’s Daily, March 28; MOFCOM, April 10). In the latter call, Šefčovič even agreed to “immediately … start negotiations on price commitments for electric vehicles” (双方同意尽快 … 立即开展电动汽车价格承诺谈判，以及讨论中欧汽车产业投资合作问题), according to the PRC readout.

Conclusion

The PRC’s is seeking to persuade European countries and the EU that it is a reliable and fair partner, offering certainty in an uncertain world. It sees Washington’s current trade policies as providing a strategic opportunity to double down on this narrative, while also depicting itself as a defender of multilateralism and international order. [2]

At the same time, indicators of Beijing’s hubris vis-à-vis the EU undermines its careful diplomatic overtures. As Premier Li Qiang admonished von der Leyen in their call, the PRC is “fully capable of hedging against adverse external influences, and it is full of confidence in maintaining the sustained and healthy development of its own economy” (完全能够对冲外部不利影响，对保持自身经济持续健康发展充满信心) (People’s Daily, April 9). This attitude is also clear in Xi’s decision to snub Brussels, declining the EU’s invitation to a 50th anniversary summit in July and breaking with protocol in the process (Reuters, March 16).

Analysts have long advised that it is better to judge Beijing not by its words but by its actions. For an economy seeking to stabilize its own economy by seeking markets to absord its industrial surplus, the EU is a prime destination, and the likely motivation behind the recent ramping up of diplomatic engagement. The EU may see the United States as source of enormous uncertainty, but it must think critically about the kind of certainty the PRC offers.

The author would like to thank Peace Ajirotutu for her assistance with the research for this article.

Notes

[1] The International Department, also known as the International Liaison Department, is a Party organization that advances the CCP’s foreign policy and helps to cultivate foreign politicians. It was originally set up to manage relations with overseas communist parties.

[2] This narrrative is even reflected in internet memes, such as one shared by a PRC commentator and captioned: “European friends, we got this!” (X/@robert_baiguan, April 7).