Trade Along Trans-Caspian International Transport Route Surges

Executive Summary:

• The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), or Middle Corridor, has evolved as a key alternative for trade between Europe and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) due to sanctions against Russia. The route bypasses Russia and transits through Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Türkiye.
• The TITR has seen a 25-fold increase in freight volumes from the PRC to Europe in 2024, with Azerbaijan playing a pivotal role. This growth aligns with the PRC’s One Belt-One Road initiative, emphasizing regional connectivity.
• This route highlights how countries in Central Asia and the Caucasus view transit through Russia as a growing economic risk while fostering infrastructure ties between the PRC and European Union offers a more promising economic future.

As the third anniversary of the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, trans-Eurasian railway shipping arrangements continue to be significantly disrupted. Due to the intensification of sanctions on Moscow due to the war, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has sought alternate trade routes to avoid Russia. These disruptions are important for Russia as its neighbors seek alternative partnerships to maintain trade and access core markets.

The most promising alternative for China-Europe Railway Express (CRE) trains has proven to be the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor (see EDM, April 19, 2022). The TITR is a multimodal corridor that connects the PRC and Europe through Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Türkiye, bypassing Russia. This ultimately connects the PRC to the European Union’s markets through a post-Soviet economic geography. CRE TITR trains now pass from the PRC through Kazakhstan at the Dostyk or Khorgos/Altynkol border crossings toward Kazakhstan’s Caspian Aktau port, where they are transshipped via ferries to Baku. From there, they cross Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Türkiye to Europe.

According to Azerbaijan Railways CJSC, the volume of goods transported from the PRC via the TITR for 2024 exceeded 27,000 TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units), which is 25 times higher than in 2023 (AZERTADZh, November 24, 2024). On November 24, 2024, the first export block train (a dedicated train for one customer) departed from Azerbaijan for the PRC, consisting of 62 containers. This allowed Azerbaijan to more easily and directly access markets in the PRC (The Caspian News, January 14). In 2024, a total of 358 container block trains ran via the TITR between the PRC–Central Asia–Azerbaijan (Azərbaycan Dəmir Yolları QSC, January 13). In 2025, Azerbaijan Railways plans to more than triple the number of block trains that run along the TITR to 1,000 (Caliber.az, January 10).

The PRC attaches great importance to the significant role of CRE trains in strengthening regional connectivity. They promote economic development and help to ensure the stability of the global production and supply chain. In October 2023, President Xi Jinping announced at the opening ceremony in Beijing of the Third Belt and Road High-Level Forum on International Cooperation eight steps to support the implementation of the One Belt-One Road (OBOR) initiative. The first of these steps was “building a multidimensional Belt and Road connectivity network.” According to Xi, “China will speed up high-quality development of the China-Europe Railway Express, participate in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor, host the China-Europe Railway Express Cooperation Forum, and make joint efforts to build a new logistics corridor across the Eurasian continent linked by direct railway and road transportation” (PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs, October 18, 2023).

The TITR has now attracted the support of Western institutions, including the World Bank.  Rolande Pryce, the World Bank regional director for the South Caucasus, observed that the TITR holds the potential to triple trade volumes between Europe and the PRC by 2030 to 11 million tons as compared to 2021 levels and reduce travel time by half. According to Pryce, “The Middle Corridor’s significance lies in the potential benefits it can bring as an intra-regional trade corridor” in addition to serving as “an Asia-Europe land-bridge for containerized freight and a route to access international markets for all types of freight” (EU Reporter, March 7, 2024). Henrik Hololei, an adviser at the European Commission’s Directorate-General for International Partnerships, highlighted the Middle Corridor as a flagship of the European Union’s Global Gateway strategy to enhance Europe’s global connections. He stated,

The aim of the platform is to provide a permanent framework that will drive forward the implementation of projects in Central Asia in a consistent and coordinated way to achieve the long-term objective of making the Trans-Caspian corridor a more sustainable, safer and faster route linking Europe and Central Asia in less than 15 days (The Caspian News, December 19, 2024).

The TITR’s success is not limited to Azerbaijan and the PRC, as Japan and South Korea have also opted to use TITR CRE trains with transit through Azerbaijan to transport goods (AZERTAG, December 20, 2024). On October 3, 2024, in Ashgabat, the European Union and Turkmenistan launched the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor Coordination Platform to integrate post-Soviet Central Asian countries further into the TITR and advance infrastructure projects that will improve the route (The Times of Central Asia, October 8, 2024; see EDM, October 28, 2024). This coordination will strengthen cooperation between Europe and Central Asia, providing the region with an alternative route to European markets that circumvents Russia.

As the PRC remains a transition economy with elements of both a market economy and a planned economy, its shifts toward the TITR have been more rapid than if policy decisions were solely based on economic considerations. As for the future, most Eurasian economic integration and development will remain policy-driven toward the PRC, while most institutional, economic, and market inertia will stem from the European Union. The TITR is yet another indicator for the post-Soviet space that since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, continuing deference and association with Russia bears increasingly dolorous economic consequences. Assisting the development of infrastructure ties between the PRC and its increasingly interested EU governments and customers appears to be the more productive direction.