Türkiye Strengthens Pivot Toward China

Executive Summary:

• Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s visit to Xinjiang underscores an expanding partnership with China, signaling a shift in Türkiye’s approach to the Uyghur issue and demonstrating a renewed focus on strengthening bilateral ties.
• Ankara seeks greater Chinese investment and a reduction in their trade imbalance amid severe economic struggles and high inflation at home.
• Türkiye will have to be diplomatic in maintaining its traditional balancing act between regional powers, especially as growing cooperation with China will likely foment distrust among Ankara’s Western allies.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently concluded a three-day visit to China, holding meetings from June 3 to 5. Fidan met with his Chinese Communist Party counterpart Wang Yi, Vice President Han Zheng, and other officials. He also traveled to the cities of Ürümqi and Kashgar in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, becoming the first high-level Turkish official to visit the region since President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited as prime minister in April 2012 (Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs [MFA], June 5). Fidan emphasized Türkiye’s support for China’s territorial integrity and political sovereignty and stressed Ankara’s opposition to international attempts to disrupt China’s economic development. He declared, “Our support against armed terrorist movements targeting China is complete. We do not consider international attempts to … halt China’s economic development as correct” (Turkish MFA, June 5). The discussions centered on boosting bilateral trade, with Fidan highlighting the need to balance trade figures that heavily favor China. He proposed lifting restrictions on Turkish agricultural products and invited Chinese companies to invest in Türkiye’s high-tech sectors. Ankara’s desire to expand cooperation with Beijing reflects Türkiye’s foreign policy tradition of balancing between regional powers, with China becoming increasingly important as Russia’s war against Ukraine continues.

China and Türkiye have historically exhibited a cautious approach toward each other. Chinese investments in Türkiye remain modest as Beijing shies away from investing in North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries (X.com/i24NEWS, June 5). Recent geopolitical upheavals, nevertheless, have cultivated a growing mutual interest in exploring expanded ties. China sees a partnership with Türkiye as an opportunity to draw Ankara away from the Western camp. Türkiye is eager to solidify economic relations with China, driven by a need for foreign direct investment with domestic inflation soaring above 75 percent and a collapsing lira (Al Monitor, June 3).

Fidan’s visit to Xinjiang is particularly noteworthy given Türkiye’s historical stance on the Uyghur issue. In 2009, Erdogan accused China of committing genocide against the Uyghurs following the July Ürümqi riots (Al-Monitor, February 20). In recent years, however, Türkiye has toned down its criticism, focusing instead on economic cooperation (Al Monitor, June 3).

Uyghurs hold a profound cultural and historical significance for the Turkish people, stemming from deep-rooted connections that trace back millennia. The Turkic peoples are a diverse collection of ethnic groups whose presence has spanned from Siberia to the Balkans and Eastern Europe. Originating in Inner Asia over 2,000 years ago, the Turks migrated and formed the Turkish Republic, post-Soviet republics, Eurasian societies, and a global diaspora. The ancient Uyghurs, a prominent Turkic civilization ruling 8th- and 9th-century lands across Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Central Asia, represent 6,000 years of shared history for the Turkic peoples. Deeply rooted in this expansive heritage, the Uyghurs hold an exceptionally strong cultural and historical bond with the Turkish people. Their struggles resonate profoundly, making their plight a sensitive issue for Türkiye (“A Dynamic 6,000-Year Genetic History of Eurasia’s Eastern Steppe,” November 12, 2020).

The visit to Xinjiang carried mixed signals. For China, it gave Beijing an opportunity to portray the situation in the region in a less critical light. For Türkiye, it served to address criticism from human rights groups and the domestic population due to the Uyghurs’ Turkic heritage and the sizable Uyghur diaspora in Türkiye. By emphasizing respect for China’s territorial integrity and agreeing to cooperate on counterterrorism, Ankara may be inadvertently supporting Beijing’s narrative regarding the suppression of Uyghurs as a counterterrorism effort (Xinhua, February 4, 2021).

Fidan’s trip coincides with increasing defense cooperation between Türkiye and China. Last year, Beijing expressed interest in defense production opportunities with Ankara. In July 2023, Chinese companies attended the International Defense Industry Fair in Istanbul seeking to expand their market share, especially on the transfer of coveted drone technology (South China Morning Post, July 20, 2023).

Türkiye’s pivot toward China is largely driven by its ailing economy, with inflation soaring above 75 percent, a collapsing currency, and a dire need for foreign investment. Türkiye’s economic predicament has been exacerbated by Erdogan’s unorthodox economic policies, which involve lowering interest rates despite soaring inflation (The Conversation, April 3). This approach has substantially eroded international and domestic confidence in the Turkish economy. In this context, China, with its vast financial resources, emerges as a crucial partner capable of providing an influx of capital to reinvigorate Türkiye’s economy.

China sees Türkiye as a strategic partner in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean. Strengthening cooperation with Ankara aligns with Beijing’s broader strategic objectives for energy and transit, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) (Chinaobservers.eu, March 12). For Beijing, Türkiye can be an important partner in challenging US influence in the Middle East through economic leverage and political influence, as well as advancing regional trade and investment ties.

Fidan’s visit fits into the broader context of Türkiye’s “Asia Anew” initiative. Announced in 2019, this framework signifies Ankara’s pivot toward Asia and acknowledges the 21st century as the “Asian century.” The initiative emphasizes Türkiye’s historical, linguistic, and cultural ties with the continent, aiming to enhance economic and trade relations with the countries of Asia, particularly China. It also seeks to strengthen political and security cooperation with multilateral organizations, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (Turkish MFA, accessed June 20).

By fostering closer ties with China, Türkiye is not only pursuing economic benefits but also attempting to position itself as a bridge between Asia and Europe. This aligns with Ankara’s vision of becoming a hub for regional connectivity projects, including the BRI and Middle Corridor (Insight Türkiye, March 31). Strengthening its role in these projects will likely enhance Türkiye’s leverage within NATO by positioning it as a crucial link between Europe and Asia. That, in turn, could afford Ankara with greater influence over the alliance’s policies toward Asia, including advocating for greater engagement and cooperation with China.This strategic shift comes with risks, especially regarding Türkiye’s position in the West. Aligning more closely with China may strain Ankara’s relations with its traditional Western allies. Balancing NATO commitments against growing cooperation with China will require careful diplomatic maneuvering. Additionally, Türkiye’s increased economic dependence on China could make it more vulnerable to security pressures from Beijing, potentially leading to distrust between Ankara and other NATO capitals.

Fidan’s recent visit marks a significant step in Türkiye’s efforts to strengthen ties with China. His visit to the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region sends varying signals, both appealing to Beijing and attempting to pacify domestic criticism over the human rights crisis in Xinjiang. While this engagement falls under Ankara’s broader Asia Anew initiative, the growing partnership between Türkiye and China will likely alarm Ankara’s Western allies. The Turkish government will have to be careful in consider the consequences of its growing partnership with Beijing and balance its economic interests with geopolitical constraints to prevent the country from becoming a client state of China.