Yahya Sinwar: Al-Aqsa Flood Mastermind Still on the Run from Israeli Forces

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Executive Summary:

• Yahya Sinwar is considered the mastermind of Hamas’s “al-Aqsa Flood” operation against Israel on October 7, 2023, alongside Mohammed al-Deif, [allegedly killed by Israel since publication, on July 13] who leads Hamas’s armed wing, the al-Qassam Brigades. Despite his decision to stay in Gaza and his placement at the top of Israel’s “most wanted” list, Sinwar has escaped being captured or killed by Israeli forces thus far.
• Sinwar is currently the highest-ranking Hamas official in Gaza, de facto ruler of the Gaza Strip, and the second most powerful member of Hamas after Ismail Haniyeh, the chairman of Hamas’s political bureau.
• In the past, Sinwar has displayed a pragmatic willingness to reconcile with al-Fatah, the Palestinian Authority, and Egypt, even briefly flirting with an indirect recognition of Israel. Since October 7, however, he has rejected anything short of a complete and comprehensive ceasefire.

Along with al-Qassam Brigades head Mohammed al-Deif, Yahya Sinwar masterminded Hamas’s “al-Aqsa Flood” operation against Israel on October 7, 2023. Sinwar has since become the Israel Defence Forces (IDF)’s main target in its military campaign in the southern Gazan city of Khan Younis. Even though more than six months have passed since the operation, Sinwar continues to manage and monitor the military situation on the ground and communicate with Hamas’s leadership abroad. Sinwar has repeatedly provided his views on negotiations for a possible ceasefire. In fact, since the Israeli retaliatory offensive on the Gaza Strip commenced on October 28, 2023, Sinwar has insisted on the need for a major prisoner exchange before agreeing to any deal. As a key figure in Hamas and the al-Qassam Brigades, Sinwar has uniquely influenced Hamas’s external relations (particularly with Egypt and Iran), its reconciliation process with al-Fatah, and its war with Israel.

Who is Sinwar?

Sinwar was born in the Khan Younis refugee camp in the Gaza Strip on October 29, 1962. His parents were displaced from Ashkelon during the 1948 Arab–Israeli War. After attending the Khan Yunis Secondary School for Boys, he enrolled at the Islamic University of Gaza in the early 1980s and majored in Arabic Studies. At that time, he also came under the influence of Islamism. In particular, he became affiliated with the Islamic Bloc, which was the student branch of the Muslim Brotherhood in Palestine (Al Jazeera, December 10, 2023).

In 1982, Sinwar was first arrested at the age of 19 for participating in demonstrations organized by an Islamist organization, although no formal charges were pressed against him. In prison, he befriended Palestinian activists and decided to devote himself to the Palestinian cause. He was briefly arrested again in 1985. During this period, he developed strong relations with Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and participated in the creation of al-Majd, [1] a network of young Palestinian Islamists who investigated and attacked Palestinian informants recruited by Israel (Al-Masry Al-Youm, December 8, 2023).

When Hamas was founded in 1987, al-Majd was included in its security forces. In 1988, Israeli security forces discovered that the network possessed weapons. This prompted Israel to arrest Sinwar once again. After a few weeks, Sinwar was arrested again in 1989 and sentenced to four life sentences for the murder of Palestinians accused of collaborating with Israel (Al-Hurra, February, 11). [2]

Turning Point

Sinwar’s imprisonment in 1989 was a turning point for him. During his long sentence, he spent much of his free time studying Israel and its army, reading Israeli newspapers, and learning to speak Hebrew. During his detention, he also took over as head of the supreme leadership body governing Hamas prisoners in Israeli jails (Al Jazeera, December 10, 2023). As a part of a large 2011 prisoner swap that released Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit (kidnapped by the al-Qassam Brigades in 2006), Sinwar finally gained freedom in 2011. After this, Sinwar became one of the leaders of the al-Qassam Brigades (Al-Roya, November 27, 2023). [3]

In 2013, Sinwar was elected as a member of Hamas’s Political Bureau in the Gaza Strip. In September 2015, he was listed as a specially designated global terrorist by the U.S. Department of State (U.S. Department of State, September 8, 2015). In February 2017, Sinwar was secretly elected as the leader of Hamas in Gaza and a member of the organization’s Politburo (Shorouk News, November 21, 2023).

Right after his election, Sinwar established the Administrative Committee for the Governance and Control of the Gaza Strip. Sinwar’s popularity steadily rose going into the flare-up between Israel and Hamas in 2021. As a result, in March 2021, Sinwar was re-elected for a second four-year term as head of Gaza’s political bureau (Al Jazeera, December 10, 2023). At a rally in 2022 to celebrate the anniversary of the founding of Hamas, he called on everyone to “be ready to rise like a flood for [the] Al-Aqsa [Mosque]” if Israel did not agree to the release of Palestinian prisoners. After Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on October 7, 2023, Sinwar accordingly became Israel’s most-wanted man, along with al-Qassam Brigades head Muhammad Al-Deif, as previously stated (Sabq Newspaper, December 13, 2023).

Conclusion

Sinwar is currently the highest-ranking Hamas official in Gaza, de facto ruler of the Gaza Strip, and the second most powerful member of Hamas after Ismail Haniyeh, the chairman of Hamas’s political bureau. Sinwar’s time in prison allowed him to gain experience and respect, thereby enabling his rapid rise through the ranks. It likewise has offered him the social cache necessary to unite Hamas’s factions through compromise. Shin Bet (Israeli intelligence) accounts describe Sinwar as a highly regarded, esteemed, and respected leader and a solid, educated, charismatic, and intelligent man who is not afraid of his enemy, going so far as to threaten Israeli officers who interrogated him. The same accounts also describe him as a very religious man, a writer, and an intellectual (Al-Quds Al-Arabi, December 15, 2023).

After he was elected leader of Hamas in Gaza, he immediately took a very pragmatic approach to Palestinian politics. In 2017, Hamas itself entered into a reconciliation agreement with the Palestinian Authority, undertook rapprochement with al-Fatah, and improved relations with Egypt, which led to the easing of restrictions at the border crossing between Egypt and Gaza. Sinwar also improved relations between Hamas and Iran, moving past disagreements that had led to a breakdown in communications after 2015 to a point where Hamas was receiving large amounts of support from Iran. Finally, Sinwar was among the architects of a change in Hamas’s conceptualization of borders, in which it recognized a Palestinian state limited to the West Bank and Gaza Strip. While the new party line attacked “Zionism,” it appeared to suggest a begrudging, indirect recognition of Israel. After the invasion of Gaza, Sinwar, together with al-Deif, tightened the ranks of the resistance around the al-Qassam Brigades and rejected any agreement or a temporary truce. Instead, both are demanding a complete and comprehensive ceasefire in Gaza (Asharq News, December 26, 2023).

The popularity of Sinwar has grown enormously due to his choice not to leave the Gaza Strip. Sinwar continues to reject any kind of temporary arrangement, as he is convinced that the al-Qassam Brigades, as well as other factions of the Palestinian Joint Operations Room, [4] have already achieved significant military results. In Sinwar’s view, Hamas has achieved more than Israel expected, and he believes they can continue fighting for several more months. Sinwar’s importance is undisputable, which is why the IDF is investing a lot of manpower and resources to eliminate him from the equation.

Notes:

[1] In Arabic, this means “glory” and is an acronym for Munazzamat al-Jihād wa al-Daʿwah, “Organization for Jihad and Daʿwah (Promotion of Islamic Ideals)”.

[2] Sinwar was arrested by Israel on several occasions and spent a total of 24 years in prison.

[3] As stated, Sinwar’s release came as part of the high-profile prisoner exchange with Gilad Shalit. Shalit, an IDF soldier, had been kidnapped by Hamas in 2006 while stationed at a border crossing. After several failed attempts to broker Shalit’s freedom, Egypt and Germany reached an agreement for his release in October 2011. Sinwar’s brother Mohammed, who had been assigned to guard Shalit, insisted that Sinwar be included in the exchange. On the same day that Shalit was released to Israel, Sinwar was among the first Palestinian prisoners to be returned to the Gaza Strip.

[4] For more on all the resistance factions active in Palestine and the Palestinian Joint Operations Room, see the “Armed Groups” section on the author’s website: https://www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/