Executive Summary: Central Asians have long called for Russia to divert water from Siberian rivers to help them address water shortages, which are a result of rising demand and global warming. These calls have been rebuffed because Russians have feared that it would harm their... MORE

Executive Summary: Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan reached a historic agreement on border delimitation on February 21, marking the end of decades-long disputes and military conflicts. The agreement also covers transport and water resource division, reinforcing regional stability. Officials in Bishkek and Dushanbe highlight the mutual concessions... MORE

Executive Summary: The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) faces growing challenges in expanding its influence, as key neighboring states, including Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, resist full membership. Russia’s geopolitical ambitions through the EAEU are hindered by competing regional forces, particularly the People’s Republic of China’s growing investment... MORE

Executive Summary: Facing increasing Russian hostility to Central Asian immigrants, Central Asian countries are instead encouraging their nationals to go to other Asian countries to ensure transfer payments and prevent domestic explosions. These moves are negatively impacting the Russian economy and forcing Moscow to seek... MORE

Executive Summary: China, through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), plays a central role in developing transit networks in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, aiming to unify regional road infrastructure and facilitate Chinese exports. Chinese involvement provides economic benefits to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan but also gives China... MORE

Executive Summary: Türkiye is capitalizing on the geopolitical crisis in Eurasia and some post-Soviet states to expand influence through cooperation with Central Asian governments in the form of increased diplomatic involvement and cultural integration. Ankara is also expanding its integration with Central Asian military economies,... MORE

Executive Summary: Reports show that China is building a “secret” military base in Tajikistan. Both Dushanbe and Beijing deny the reports, though China has been covertly expanding its military footprint in Tajikistan for over a decade. Some of the expansion has occurred in coordination with... MORE

Executive Summary: The Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP) is increasing external operations and expanding recruitment in Central Asia through media wings that publish Central Asian militants and present them as role models for existing or potential supporters to follow. ISKP’s growing reach and international... MORE

Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) sees the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as an important part of a wider strategy to construct a new international order. Beijing projects soft power through promoting norms, discursive constructs, and policy preferences in the SCO which member states... MORE

Executive Summary: As currently planned, Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa Canal will divert water from the Amu Darya river away from Central Asian countries, including those usually referred to as “water surplus” states, as well as China and Russia. Kabul does not participate in any water-sharing accord... MORE