Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has expanded its activities in the Arctic since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Moscow needs PRC engagement in the Arctic as sanctions limit Russian activities, but fears the PRC will try to become the... MORE

Executive Summary: DeepSeek and its parent company, High-Flyer, are embedded in the vibrant—and heavily state-subsidized—“Hangzhou Chengxi Science and Technology Innovation Corridor,” which aims to create a Chinese answer to Silicon Valley in the companies’ hometown. DeepSeek claims that its models are not trained on GPUs... MORE

Executive Summary: Recent suspicious activities conducted by the merchant vessels Shunxing-39 and Vasili Shukshin in the vicinity of Taiwan in early 2025 suggest possible collaboration between Chinese and Russian merchant ships related to the reconnaissance and sabotage of undersea communications cables that connect Taiwan to... MORE

Executive Summary: The year 2024 witnessed sudden removals of high-level People’s Liberation Army (PLA) commanders, a continuation of the purge of 15 defense industry leaders and military commanders in 2023. Xi Jinping’s possible motivations include combating corruption, managing factional conflicts, asserting dominance as an aging... MORE

Executive Summary: Research collaboration between European and Chinese universities could be indirectly supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine. Over 20 agreements, partnerships, or newly published research articles have been announced between “Seven Sons of National Defense” universities and European entities between December 2024 and January 2025.... MORE

Executive Summary: New measures to control online information related to the People's Liberation Army (PLA) could be an indicator of imminent military operations, further purges, or other military activity. The measures are drafted by 10 military and state bodies, indicating that Beijing places enormous importance... MORE

Executive Summary: Predicting artificial intelligence (AI) firm DeepSeek’s recent successes within a highly competitive AI ecosystem may have been possible by observing factors such as government recognition, proximity to top-tier national research institutions, and a complex network of corporate affiliates with proven technology expertise. Indicators... MORE

Executive Summary Russian hybrid attacks targeting critical undersea infrastructure (CUI), particularly fiber-optic cables, have surged in the Baltic and Arctic regions since 2021. These disruptions threaten essential communication channels and expose the vulnerabilities of Northern Europe’s infrastructure. Incidents in 2023 and 2024 involving Chinese vessels... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow’s need to supply its invasion forces in Ukraine, its rapid shift of trade away from Europe toward Asia due to sanctions, and slashed investments have put unprecedented strains on Russian railways. China will seek alternative routes for trade with Europe, using domestic... MORE

Executive Summary: Mercenaries have existed since ancient times but have evolved into modern private military and security companies (PMSCs) focusing on training, logistics, and protection, especially in Western practices. Russian private military companies (PMCs) and Chinese private security companies (PSCs), however, operate differently from both... MORE