Executive Summary: Leading candidates in the KMT party chair elections strongly self-identify as Chinese and are advocating to resolve cross-Strait tensions with a dialogue approach rooted in the 1992 Consensus. Notably lacking amongst the leading candidates is someone who represents the “Taiwanese” faction of the... MORE

Executive Summary: Beijing’s relentless pressure on Taiwan now includes oil rigs: twelve permanent or semi-permanent structures and dozens of associated ships. The structures, which are owned by state-owned firm CNOOC, include seven rig structures, three floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels, and two semi-submersible... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kuomintang (KMT) is undergoing a complex transformation, seeking to redefine itself by moving away from its perception as a “pro-China” party to one grounded in support for the Republic of China’s (ROC) democratic institutions. Internal factions—ranging from pro-unification traditionalists to sovereignty-leaning localists—reflect... MORE

Executive Summary: In a historic first for any democracy at the national level, mass recall campaigns in Taiwan are seeking to overturn the opposition’s legislative majority that was elected in 2024. The recall campaigns are the latest battleground in an ongoing power struggle between the... MORE

Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has cultivated close ties with Brazil, which it sees as a prime candidate to co-lead the Global South in an emerging multipolar world. Beijing is now the top trading partner for the South American continent, including with... MORE

Executive Summary: The People’s Liberation Army increasingly emphasizes blockade scenarios in its exercises and drills, signaling a strategic shift in Beijing’s approach to a military contingency in the Taiwan Strait. Policy elites and current and former military officials corroborate this shift but largely project any... MORE

Executive Summary: At Moscow’s 80th Victory Day parade, President Xi Jinping positioned the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as a key anti-fascist power alongside Russia, using a selective World War II narrative to legitimize the PRC’s present-day international role and deepen symbolic ties with the... MORE

In the last 6 months, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has increased its aggressive actions targeting Taiwan. These include military provocations, infiltration operations, and gray zone activities. In his 2024 New Year’s Eve address, PRC President Xi Jinping reiterated the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP)... MORE

Executive Summary: Taiwan's 2025 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) prioritizes enhancing all-of-society resilience and emphasizes U.S.-Taiwan military cooperation. The document represents a significant improvement over its predecessor in content and clarity but suffers from being a document without consensus: Published by the Ministry of National Defense,... MORE

Executive Summary: People’s Liberation Army (PLA) operations against Taiwan on April 1–2 consisted of multiple drills that had limited interconnection, distinguishing them from exercises that tend to be more complex and confrontational. Recent training reforms have meant that drills now tend to involve more cross-service... MORE