Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has cultivated close ties with Brazil, which it sees as a prime candidate to co-lead the Global South in an emerging multipolar world. Beijing is now the top trading partner for the South American continent, including with... MORE

Executive Summary: The People’s Liberation Army increasingly emphasizes blockade scenarios in its exercises and drills, signaling a strategic shift in Beijing’s approach to a military contingency in the Taiwan Strait. Policy elites and current and former military officials corroborate this shift but largely project any... MORE

Executive Summary: At Moscow’s 80th Victory Day parade, President Xi Jinping positioned the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as a key anti-fascist power alongside Russia, using a selective World War II narrative to legitimize the PRC’s present-day international role and deepen symbolic ties with the... MORE

In the last 6 months, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has increased its aggressive actions targeting Taiwan. These include military provocations, infiltration operations, and gray zone activities. In his 2024 New Year’s Eve address, PRC President Xi Jinping reiterated the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP)... MORE

Executive Summary: Taiwan's 2025 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) prioritizes enhancing all-of-society resilience and emphasizes U.S.-Taiwan military cooperation. The document represents a significant improvement over its predecessor in content and clarity but suffers from being a document without consensus: Published by the Ministry of National Defense,... MORE

Executive Summary: People’s Liberation Army (PLA) operations against Taiwan on April 1–2 consisted of multiple drills that had limited interconnection, distinguishing them from exercises that tend to be more complex and confrontational. Recent training reforms have meant that drills now tend to involve more cross-service... MORE

Executive Summary: The People’s Liberation Army Navy conducted two live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea in February without providing customary notification to Australia or New Zealand and causing at least 49 civilian aircraft to divert course. The Tasman Sea drill was designed to demonstrate the... MORE

Executive Summary: Taiwan has suffered an annual average of 7–8 undersea cable disruptions over the past three years, most of which it attributes to vessels from the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Undersea cables carry 95 percent of global internet traffic. Recent PRC research and... MORE

Executive Summary: The People’s Liberation Army Air Force has been developing drone technology specifically for use in a Taiwan contingency, some of which was on display at the Zhuhai Airshow in November. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is framing the country’s rapid expansion of... MORE

Executive Summary: People’s Liberation Army (PLA) naval training drills near Taiwan and surrounding the First Island Chain on December 9–11 did not constitute a full-scale joint exercise but sent a signal to the incoming US administration. Beijing’s power projection demonstration, involving 60 vessels, signals to... MORE