Executive Summary: Poland is accelerating its military build-up for a projected war with Russia as Ukraine faces a potentially unfavorable outcome in the peace talks brokered by the Donald Trump administration. Warsaw plans to introduce voluntary military training for all adult males and bolster Poland’s... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is accelerating societal militarization through aggressive conscription tactics and the rapid expansion of military training in civilian education, aiming to create a long-term, competent force while limiting civilian access to higher education. Russia is opening more Military Training Centers and reopening command... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin seeks to restore normal relations with the West as a bargaining chip for negotiations on Russia’s war against Ukraine, despite intensifying anti-European rhetoric in Russian media. Pro-Kremlin analysts, especially from military-linked outlets, increasingly accuse Europe of Nazism and suggest deliberate strategies... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Moscow is drawing Washington into an incremental, conditions-tied process, instead of a quick and unconditional ceasefire in Russia’s war against Ukraine. The U.S. White House has agreed to “help” Russia mitigate certain Western sanctions—including U.S. ones—that affect Russian agricultural exports. Russia... MORE

Executive Summary: Four U.S. soldiers, members of the 1st Brigade, 3rd Infantry Division, went missing on March 25 during training near Lithuania’s border with Belarus. The U.S. Army has confirmed that three were found dead after their armored vehicle was recovered from a deep swamp.... MORE

Executive Summary: Chinese military experts are incorporating lessons from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on the use and importance of drones and autonomous systems, which is reshaping the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) strategic planning and operational doctrine. In simulated Taiwan Strait scenarios, the PLA has... MORE

Executive Summary: Consultations among the United States, Russia, and Ukraine are dealing piecemeal with narrow aspects of a putative ceasefire. Moscow stonewalls the quick, comprehensive ceasefire that the Trump administration pursues. A maritime ceasefire (moratorium on firing at sea) could result in banning Ukrainian naval... MORE

Executive Summary: On February 3, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) targeted paramilitary leader Armen Sarkisian in Moscow, illustrating Ukraine’s strategy to actualize the war for the removed Russians. Through assassinations, the operation into Kursk oblast, and drone warfare, Ukraine alarmed everyday citizens who until... MORE

Executive Summary: Traditionally, Islamist militants have not been quick to adopt the newest drone and 3D printing technology, but the popularization of 3D-printed firearms (3DPFs) on Islamic State platforms suggests that that is changing. If 3DPFs become more widespread, malicious actors will be able to... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow has declared that Oslo strengthening its defenses on Svalbard is a violation of the Svalbard Treaty, implying that Russia views itself as a defender of that treaty and could take military action to defend it.  Nikolai Patrushev, a hardline Kremlin aide close... MORE