Executive Summary: On February 12, Belarus released three political prisoners, including a U.S. citizen and two Belarusian nationals, signaling an attempt to reset relations with the United States. The releases are part of Belarus’s broader strategy to de-escalate tensions with Western countries, particularly under the... MORE

Executive Summary: The Treaty on Security Guarantees within the framework of the Russia-Belarus Union State allows for a nuclear weapons response to the use of nuclear or weapons of mass destruction, or certain threats to territorial integrity, against either Belarus or Russia, but it remains... MORE

Executive Summary:  Russia and Belarus signed two security-related documents in December 2024 that deepen Belarus’s integration within Russia’s geopolitical influence and obligate the Belarusian leadership to participate in military conflicts alongside Russia, similar to the latter’s agreements with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. The... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia has developed a new intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), Oreshnik, based on its RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). In November 2024, Russian armed forces conducted a combined missile strike on a Ukrainian military-industrial complex facility as a test for the missile. The... MORE

Executive Summary: During his re-election as Belarus’s President, Alyaksandr Lukashenka warned Poland that any attempt to annex western Ukraine would precipitate a conflict with Belarus and Russia. Lukashenka’s warnings are part of a broader obsession with Poland’s regional and European influence and support for the... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka was named the winner of Belarus’s seventh presidential election for his seventh consecutive term. This election starkly contrasted with the last election, as it was relatively calm without mass protests. The Western response to the election was overwhelmingly negative,... MORE

Executive Summary: In advance of his sham re-election, Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka has launched an expanded campaign against Roman Catholics, the 14 percent of his nation who have been the most opposed to the Minsk strongman in the past. Moscow has joined this effort to... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus’s presidential election on January 26 will likely hold no democratic legitimacy, with predetermined results ensuring Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s continued rule. Public disillusionment persists amid regime-led propaganda and repression, highlighting the ongoing struggle for democratic reform in Belarus.  Growing economic and political integration is... MORE

Executive Summary: The upcoming Belarusian presidential election on January 26, 2025 will occur facing the aftershocks of the contested 2020 election, which disrupted domestic liberalization trends and triggered a geopolitical shift toward closer Belarusian-Russian integration. The election has garnered little international attention, with Western governments... MORE

Executive Summary: A joint meeting of the Foreign Ministry Collegiums of Russia and Belarus occurred on November 22, emphasizing deepening Belarus-Russia cooperation under the Union State framework, with new agreements on joint security and coordinated foreign policy. Russia extended its nuclear doctrine to cover Belarus,... MORE