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Latest Articles about Belarus
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Belarus’s Strategy to Avoid War
Executive Summary: Belarus is maneuvering to avoid being dragged directly into the hostilities in Ukraine, which has become Minsk’s main strategy since allowing Russian forces to launch the expanded invasion from Belarusian territory. Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka stated: “Can we do it? No, we cannot”... MORE
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Belarusians Caught Between Competing Political Visions
Executive Summary: Belarusians find themselves torn between two conflicting national agendas—one upheld by the state apparatus and the other championed by the opposition, many of whom are either exiled or imprisoned. The leaders of both political camps are exacerbating Belarus’s polarized political environment, alienating Belarusians... MORE
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Belarus Begins Mobilizing Under Guise of Military Exercises
Executive Summary: Belarus tightened its mobilization legislation in April, suggesting that it might be taking steps to prepare for direct combat. The Belarusian military is simultaneously increasing its use of military equipment under the guise of exercises, purchasing more drones, and staffing brigades to wartime... MORE
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Belarus Prepares for War but Hopes to Avoid It
Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka approved a bill that would suspend Belarus’s participation in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), removing numerical ceilings on armed forces and main conventional weapons systems. Numerous voices in the West have suspected that Minsk could... MORE
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The Future of the Eurasian Economic Union
Executive Summary: The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) has attempted to increase its influence by creating a permanent free-trade zone with Iran, entering talks with India on a free-trade agreement, and encouraging Uzbekistan to become a member. The EAEU has served as a way for Moscow... MORE
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Belarusian Economy Sees Growth Despite Hurdles
Executive Summary: The Belarusian economy experienced 3.9-percent growth in 2023, a positive outcome compared to the 4.7-percent decline in 2022. Minsk is expanding its trade partners, and Belarusian officials have developed numerous connections with their international counterparts in the Global South and elsewhere over the... MORE
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Belarus’s Diplomatic Activities Reflect a Non-Ideological Foreign Policy
Executive Summary: Belarusian Foreign Minister Sergei Aleinik’s recent visits to India and Mongolia highlight Minsk’s growing ambitions to court alternative economic partners to Russia and the West. These efforts reflect a non-ideological basis for Belarus’s foreign policy, as pragmatic economic considerations almost always trump ideological... MORE
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Lukashenka and the Nuances of Belarusian Nationalism
Executive Summary: Belarusian statehood and national identity have experienced several transformations throughout history, influenced by connections to Russia and the West. The Belarusian population is divided between two dominant narratives on national identity: the “Westernizing” and Russo-centric perspectives. Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka subscribes to the... MORE
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Ostracizing Minsk May Not Be in the West’s Interests
Executive Summary: The political rigidity associated with Western reactions to Minsk has limited any positive impact and is now sacrificing the “strategic foundation of Belarus’s statehood” on the altar of “present-day concerns.” Official Minsk has limited economic options due to Western sanctions, leading to a... MORE
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Logistical Semi-Blockade Undermines Strategic Foundations of Belarusian Statehood
Executive Summary: Belarus plays an essential geostrategic role in the logistical transport networks between Asia and Europe through the “Northern Corridor,” which passes through Russia and Belarus. Although Western sanctions due to the war in Ukraine have negatively affected the volume of transport through the... MORE