Executive Summary: Belarusian statehood and national identity have experienced several transformations throughout history, influenced by connections to Russia and the West. The Belarusian population is divided between two dominant narratives on national identity: the “Westernizing” and Russo-centric perspectives. Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka subscribes to the... MORE

Executive Summary: The political rigidity associated with Western reactions to Minsk has limited any positive impact and is now sacrificing the “strategic foundation of Belarus’s statehood” on the altar of “present-day concerns.” Official Minsk has limited economic options due to Western sanctions, leading to a... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus plays an essential geostrategic role in the logistical transport networks between Asia and Europe through the “Northern Corridor,” which passes through Russia and Belarus. Although Western sanctions due to the war in Ukraine have negatively affected the volume of transport through the... MORE

Executive Summary Belarus’s new military doctrine appears to emphasize tactical nuclear weapons as a means of preventing others from attacking the country. While high-ranking military officials use generic phrases about the role of tactical nukes, lower-ranking officials hint at provisions for preemptive nuclear strikes against... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus’s government outlawed opposition parties in anticipation of last week’s parliamentary election, contrasting previous elections that had offered a platform for opposition parties to spread their views. Oppositionists have primarily been forced into exile, which raises doubts about how effectively they can communicate... MORE

Executive Summary: Minsk is doubling down on military deterrence through asymmetrical means as Belarus finds itself in an increasingly complicated and entangled security situation due to the war in Ukraine. In recent years, Belarus’s military expenditures have fallen significantly lower than its neighbors’ budgets, giving... MORE

Executive Summary: The upcoming Belarusian elections highlight a political landscape dominated by a few parties that support the existing regime in Minsk amid criticism of limited political alternatives and a lack of international observers. President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s emphasis on generational change raises speculation about succession,... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka visited Uzbekistan to strengthen bilateral relations between the two post-Soviet states. Economic relations between Uzbekistan and Belarus are becoming stronger. Bilateral trade has increased significantly in the past few years. The strain of Western sanctions on Belarus due to... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Lukashenka strengthens ties with Russia through various events, emphasizing economic cooperation, joint ventures, and alignment on historical narratives to cement their alliance further. These symbolic gestures showcase a united front against perceived Western threats, reinforcing the ideological bond between Belarus and... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus is updating its National Security Concept and military doctrine amid increasing tensions in Eastern Europe brought on by Russia’s war against Ukraine Drafts of both documents emphasize that Minsk’s best course to preserving national security emerges from better relations with Europe, despite... MORE