Executive Summary: Belarusian Foreign Affairs Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov published an op-ed outlining Minsk’s assessment of the current and prospective bilateral relations between Belarus and Lithuania, signaling a desire from Minsk to further engage with Vilnius in the future. In Vilnius, Ryzhenkov’s suggestions were received coldly,... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin announced updates to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons by expanding the list of conditions that would justify such a measure. These updates are intended to serve as a warning to the West and legitimize... MORE

Executive Summary: Since early July, at least 115 political prisoners have been released from Belarusian prisons, raising important questions about the reasons for such decisions and how they might pave the way for a potential reopening of Belarus’s relations with the West. The Belarusian opposition... MORE

Executive Summary: In August, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka announced that Ukrainian attack drones en route to Russia had entered Belarusian airspace, provoking a harsh response from Minsk. Official Minsk’s decision to withdraw troops from the border had demonstrated a willingness to act in ways that... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk has caused Putin’s ratings to fall to their lowest point since the war began. The majority of Russians, nevertheless, still say they are “satisfied” with their lives. To prevent the growth of societal discontent, the Kremlin will seek to... MORE

(Part One) (Part Two) Executive Summary: The second phase of the joint non-strategic nuclear exercises between Belarus and Russia sought to improve combat readiness and disentangle deployment tasks with tactical nuclear weapons in the event that hostilities in Ukraine spill out into Belarusian and/or Russian... MORE

Executive Summary: Western punitive sanctions against Belarus since 2020 may have done more to strengthen authoritarianism in Belarus and reinforce the country’s economic, political, informational, and military cooperation with Russia. Sanctions have negatively impacted the lives of ordinary citizens, making it harder to obtain visas,... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka recently announced that he had conducted backchannel talks with Kyiv to de-escalate military tensions on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. The announcement drew attention from Russian-language media and social networks but was largely disregarded in the West, highlighting some Western countries'... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka celebrated the 30th anniversary of his rule on July 10, highlighting his enduring influence in Belarusian politics as the country’s only president since independence. Lukashenka’s power relies on pro-Russian support against pro-European factions, which he claims necessitates authoritarian control.... MORE

Executive Summary: This month marks 30 years since Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka came to power. In the coming months, a new presidential campaign will begin, leaving many questioning whether he will run again due to his age and overall health. Possible regime change and democratic... MORE