Executive Summary: As part of Belarus’s Independence Day festivities, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka presented an amnesty plan to release thousands of convicts and political prisoners. He also introduced a series of personnel changes that may provide an opening for future rapprochement with the West. Two main... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka recently made a series of public pronouncements that have provoked Armenia and Israel and placed Belarus in an even more precarious geopolitical position. Lukashenka’s flippant comments in Azerbaijan, tense relationship with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and series of... MORE

Executive Summary: Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó recently visited Belarus to discuss expanding trade amid stringent EU sanctions, cooperating more closely on nuclear energy, and maintaining open lines of communication. Budapest is the only EU capital that recognizes the post-2020 political status quo in Minsk... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alyaksandr Lukashenka met in Minsk on May 23 and 24 to discuss synchronizing the second and third phases of their joint non-strategic nuclear exercises. The composition of forces and means involved in the exercises suggests... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s government continues to see success its foreign policy while conducting state visits to Azerbaijan and Mongolia as well as hosting Hungarian officials and businessmen. The Belarusian opposition, however, is experiencing an identity crisis, evidenced in the low polling turnout... MORE

Executive Summary Cryptocurrency use has expanded in Russia since the beginning of the war against Ukraine and is being embraced as a method of subverting economic isolation. Russia and Belarus are using the development of blockchain-based technologies to enable continued access to international trade without... MORE

Executive Summary: Western efforts to trigger the release of at least 1,559 political prisoners in Belarus, who are forced to endure inhumane conditions and extreme repressions, have flagged since 2020. Belarus’s economic needs in the current geopolitical environment are opening windows to pressure Minsk to... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka conducted a state visit to Azerbaijan to meet with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, where they reinforced their close personal bond and chemistry. The strong personal chemistry between Lukashenka and Aliyev appears to uphold the exceptionally close bilateral connections between... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian politics are divided into two factions: the Lukashenka regime, with strong ties to Russia, located within Belarus, and the opposition, whose members are largely in exile. The Lukashenka regime continues to rely on Russia economically but has worked to increase trade cooperation... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia and Belarus announced a joint tactical nuclear exercise to signal to Western countries that deploying their troops in Ukraine will lead to nuclear escalation. The general staffs of the Russian and Belarusian armed forces are preparing tactical nuclear strikes on targets located... MORE