Executive Summary: Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk has caused Putin’s ratings to fall to their lowest point since the war began. The majority of Russians, nevertheless, still say they are “satisfied” with their lives. To prevent the growth of societal discontent, the Kremlin will seek to... MORE

(Part One) (Part Two) Executive Summary: The second phase of the joint non-strategic nuclear exercises between Belarus and Russia sought to improve combat readiness and disentangle deployment tasks with tactical nuclear weapons in the event that hostilities in Ukraine spill out into Belarusian and/or Russian... MORE

Executive Summary: Western punitive sanctions against Belarus since 2020 may have done more to strengthen authoritarianism in Belarus and reinforce the country’s economic, political, informational, and military cooperation with Russia. Sanctions have negatively impacted the lives of ordinary citizens, making it harder to obtain visas,... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka recently announced that he had conducted backchannel talks with Kyiv to de-escalate military tensions on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. The announcement drew attention from Russian-language media and social networks but was largely disregarded in the West, highlighting some Western countries'... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka celebrated the 30th anniversary of his rule on July 10, highlighting his enduring influence in Belarusian politics as the country’s only president since independence. Lukashenka’s power relies on pro-Russian support against pro-European factions, which he claims necessitates authoritarian control.... MORE

Executive Summary: This month marks 30 years since Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka came to power. In the coming months, a new presidential campaign will begin, leaving many questioning whether he will run again due to his age and overall health. Possible regime change and democratic... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus officially joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) at the July summit in Astana, becoming the first European country to join. Minsk hopes to use SCO membership to synchronize the development of the north-south and east-west transit corridors, amplify its increasingly vocal anti-sanctions... MORE

Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) sees the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as an important part of a wider strategy to construct a new international order. Beijing projects soft power through promoting norms, discursive constructs, and policy preferences in the SCO which member states... MORE

Executive Summary: As part of Belarus’s Independence Day festivities, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka presented an amnesty plan to release thousands of convicts and political prisoners. He also introduced a series of personnel changes that may provide an opening for future rapprochement with the West. Two main... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka recently made a series of public pronouncements that have provoked Armenia and Israel and placed Belarus in an even more precarious geopolitical position. Lukashenka’s flippant comments in Azerbaijan, tense relationship with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and series of... MORE