Executive Summary: The Syrian government's attempted offensive on Suwayda appears to have been aimed at taking advantage of skirmishes between Bedouin tribal militias and Druze factions to dismantle local autonomy under the pretense of halting intercommunal violence. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) views the... MORE

Executive Summary: Azerbaijan and Armenia are considering an agreement featuring U.S. management of transit through Armenia via the Zangezur Corridor to link Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave. Russia and Iran are staunchly opposed to the proposal because they fear that U.S. involvement in the route... MORE

Executive Summary: The Caspian Sea is becoming a site of geopolitical conflict as Russia is rapidly losing its dominance over the four other littoral states: Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan have been expanding their fleets and are now entering into security... MORE

Executive Summary: The Islamic Republic of Iran is cracking down on the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK) in the aftermath of its war with Israel. The PJAK appears to be reaching out to potential allies in the West, and has likewise tried to build a... MORE

Executive Summary: On June 22, an Islamist terrorist entered the Mar Elias Greek Orthodox Church in Damascus mid-service, opening fire on the crowd before detonating his suicide vest. The attack killed 25 and injured 63. While it is not yet known who is responsible for... MORE

Executive Summary: Georgia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Khvtisiashvili expressed solidarity with Iran following the Israeli airstrikes, sparking outrage from the Israeli Embassy and raising domestic accusations of Georgian Dream acting as a regional proxy for Tehran. Russia is intensifying efforts to pull Georgia into strategic... MORE

Executive Summary: Officials from Abkhazia’s Foreign Ministry visited Syria on June 25 to advance political and economic ties with Damascus, highlighting ongoing diplomatic activity between the breakaway Georgian territory and one of its few international backers. Syria’s recognition of Abkhazia in 2018, likely influenced by... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin miscalculated the United States’s readiness to support Israel’s air campaign and underestimated the speed of the ceasefire with Iran, underscoring Russia’s diminishing leverage in Middle Eastern conflicts. Russia cannot offer Iran tangible aid despite vocal support, pushing Tehran away from Russia... MORE

Executive Summary: Beijing interprets recent U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities as a demonstration of deterrence aimed at supporters of Iran’s Islamic regime. In response, state media showcased the Yunjian-1000 bunker-busting missile, implying that the People’s Liberation Army has superior capabilities than those of the... MORE

Executive Summary: Kremlin officials are condemning the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities as violations of international law while simultaneously committing violations of Ukrainian sovereignty. Moscow presents itself as a defender of sovereignty and global nuclear norms in its discourse toward Iran, yet it disregards... MORE