Executive Summary: Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash on May 19, renewing discussions over who will eventually succeed 85-year-old Supreme Leader Khamenei. While ostensibly benefitting Khameni’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, Raisi’s “hard landing” opens the door for Reformists and disaffected elements of the... MORE

Executive Summary: Azerbaijan has taken a more conservative stance on the war in Gaza, maintaining relations with Israel, on the one hand, and avoiding declaring Hamas a terrorist organization, on the other. Baku’s position represents a break from the responses of Türkiye, Pakistan, and many... MORE

Executive Summary: Azerbaijan and Türkiye signed an agreement for cooperation with natural gas, which includes increased export of Central Asian and Azerbaijani gas to Türkiye with Turkmenistan being a primary exporter. Debate over including Iran in these agreements adds uncertainty to the project due to... MORE

Executive Summary: Malaysia has maintained an ambiguously warm relationship toward Hamas, even following the October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is known to be a vocal defender of the group, and the country is home to Aman Palestin, a charity that... MORE

Executive Summary: An attack by the Iran-based Sunni Baloch separatist militant group Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice) on the port city of Chabahar on April 3 displayed an uncharacteristic level of sophistication from the group. These mirror innovations previously seen in attacks conducted in Pakistan... MORE

Executive Summary: The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is unlikely to fundamentally change Tehran’s foreign policy approach immediately, but it is already affecting Iranian domestic politics and could eventually affect its relations with the outside world. Any change would likely first be seen first... MORE

Executive Summary: Yahya Sinwar is considered the mastermind of Hamas’s “al-Aqsa Flood” operation against Israel on October 7, 2023, alongside Mohammed al-Deif, who leads Hamas’s armed wing, the al-Qassam Brigades. Despite his decision to stay in Gaza and his placement at the top of Israel’s... MORE

Executive Summary Hezbollah has used Lebanon’s ongoing political and financial crisis to acquire large gold reserves from its citizens living in poverty, doing so in a way that offers the group the chance to bolster both its popularity its asset reserves in preparation for a... MORE

Executive Summary Kyrgyzstan recently finished repatriating women and children who were detained in Syria and Iraq for having been connected with men who fought with al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS). This has been hailed as the end to Central Asia's struggle with large-scale jihadism, but... MORE

Executive Summary: New developments in the South Caucasus have opened a window for possible long-term rapprochement between Iran and Azerbaijan, especially on trade and transit matters. Baku seeks increased regional stability amid tense peace negotiations with Armenia and a falling out with some Western countries... MORE