Executive Summary: The Kremlin miscalculated the United States’s readiness to support Israel’s air campaign and underestimated the speed of the ceasefire with Iran, underscoring Russia’s diminishing leverage in Middle Eastern conflicts. Russia cannot offer Iran tangible aid despite vocal support, pushing Tehran away from Russia... MORE

Executive Summary: The March 2025 anti-Hamas protests in Gaza reflected a moment enabled by Hamas’s temporary inability to suppress opposition due to wartime losses. The degradation of its Qassam Brigades, many of whom also serve in internal policing roles, weakened the group’s control over the... MORE

Executive Summary: Israel’s unexpected missile offensive on Iran on June 13 caught Moscow off guard, disrupting its assumptions about U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and raising suspicions of a concealed Western strategy to undercut Tehran’s military and nuclear ambitions. Moscow condemned Israel’s actions rhetorically but failed to... MORE

Executive Summary: Israel announced on March 6 that it is in discussions with the United States to establish trilateral cooperation with Azerbaijan, deepening long-standing ties between Israel and Azerbaijan in security, energy, and diplomacy. This trilateral initiative positions Azerbaijan as a bridge between the Middle... MORE

Executive Summary: The legacy of Raed al-Karmi, a Palestinian militant who fought in the Second Intifada and was killed in 2002, continues to have an impact on the minds of West Bank militants, especially in the city of Tulkarem. Since October 7, 2023, a broad... MORE

Executive Summary: The first anniversary of the war in Gaza has revealed the near-total disappearance of Russia’s influence in the Middle East, as it has not been able to partner with those averse to US positions. Moscow hopes to exploit the shift in international attention... MORE

Executive Summary: In late May, Mossad attributed two attacks against the Israeli embassy in Stockholm to Iranian-backed criminal networks active in the country. The individuals at the core of these networks are Rawa “The Kurdish Fox” Majid and Ismael “The Strawberry” Abdo. The decision by... MORE

Please note: This article was originally published in Militant Leadership Monitor on May 21 and would normally require a subscription to view. It is being made free for the purpose of publicizing information regarding Yahya Sinwar, who was selected as chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau... MORE

Executive Summary: Since the United States authorized Kyiv to use Western-provided weapons on Russian territory, Moscow has considered striking back on a new front by providing modern anti-ship missiles to Yemen’s Houthis (Ansarallah), who have been striking shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin summoned Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad to Moscow for a secret meeting the same day Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the US Congress, demonstrating Putin’s scramble to maintain influence in the Middle East. Russia’s renewed interest in the Middle... MORE