Southern Transitional Council Seeks Leverage with Declaration of Self-Rule Brian M. Perkins Saudi Arabia’s attempts to extricate itself from the war in Yemen became increasingly complicated as the Riyadh Agreement all but collapsed on April 25, when the Southern Transitional Council (STC) declared a state... MORE

Executive Summary: Defeats, plummeting oil prices, and a global pandemic are forcing Saudi Arabia to rethink its involvement in Yemen. Ironically, the end of overt Saudi involvement in Yemen may help it achieve some of its aims as new alliances dilute Houthi control and minimize... MORE

Introduction The first months of 2020 witnessed significant diplomatic activity between the Gulf and the Maghreb. However, the emerging global economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic will likely affect some of these diplomatic dynamics. In January 2020, the Berlin conference on Libya offered an... MORE

Yemen’s Houthis have defied the forecasts of numerous analysts who predicted that their grip on northwest Yemen would erode. Rather than being weakened, Houthi and allied forces are stronger and better organized than at any point over the last two years. The Houthis’ recent offensives... MORE

Over the past few months, diplomatic activism around the Libyan civil war has intensified sharply. Two dynamics drove this process. First, the visible presence of Russian mercenaries fighting alongside the forces of Khalifa Haftar, the eastern-based leader of the Libyan National Army (literal Arabic translation... MORE

Oman’s Ability to Balance Competing Priorities Will Help Shape the Gulf in Coming Years Brian M. Perkins During the fraught aftermath of the airstrike that killed Major General Qasem Soleimani, another key development with broad implications for the Middle East was unfolding. The death of... MORE

The Jeddah Agreement, which is the latest ceasefire deal regarding the war in Yemen, is not one that will see the Houthi rebels lay down their arms. Instead, the Saudi Arabia and UAE-sponsored agreement seeks to end the long-simmering fight that escalated sharply in August... MORE

Russian President Vladimir Putin pried loose a couple of energy investment deals from Saudi Arabia on his latest visit to the region, on October 14 and 15 (TASS, Kommersant, October 14), but their total value reached only hundreds of millions of dollars, not the billions... MORE

The war in Yemen has grown increasingly intractable over the past several months as the long-simmering rift within the anti-Houthi coalition has widened, with violence between the pro-secession Southern Transitional Council (STC) and Hadi and Islah-aligned forces erupting in Aden, Shabwa, and Abyan. The conflict... MORE

In April, the governor of the Yemeni governorate of Socotra, Ramzi Mahroos, announced his vehement rejection to the formation of any militias in Socotra. He vowed to work against any such move, stating that it would create divisions and more conflict between Yemenis. Despite official... MORE