Executive Summary:  Russian military losses typically have affected Russia and its neighbors at home even more than Russian victories. Moscow is now worried that the ouster of Bashar al-Assad will influence the post-Soviet space and Muslim regions in Russia. To reduce these dangers, the Kremlin... MORE

Executive Summary: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has signaled plans to pursue EU membership, which Moscow views as an attempt by Brussels and Washington D.C. to fully replace it. Armenia’s reliance on Russia for trade complicates the situation. The economic challenges posed by such a... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s Federal Security Service border guards left Armenia’s border checkpoint with Iran on December 30. Even though Russian guards will remain elsewhere on the entire stretch of the Armenia-Iran border, it represents further diversification away from Moscow. The European Union Mission Armenia (EUMA)... MORE

Executive Summary: As Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s ratings continue to decline, a viral video of him shaving has been interpreted as the start of the government’s preparations for the next parliamentary elections, which are scheduled for mid-June 2026 at the latest. The resignation of... MORE

Executive Summary: The Iran-Armenia gas-for-electricity swap agreement allows both countries to address seasonal energy imbalances while enabling Iran to expand its influence in the South Caucasus region. Iran faces challenges through sanctions, electricity shortages, gas imbalance, and Russia’s dominance in Armenia’s gas market via Gazprom... MORE

Executive Summary: The ruling Georgian Dream secured re-election for another four-year term, and ethnic Azerbaijani and Armenian populations in Georgia, who tend to support the ruling party, were blamed by opposition groups for contributing to Georgian Dream’s victory. Allegations are circulating about the manipulation of... MORE

Executive Summary: In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, governments in Eastern Europe have begun reducing the presence of the Russian language in their education systems to combat Moscow’s influence and the Russification of their populations. The preservation of the Russian language abroad is... MORE

Executive Summary: Last month, Armenia arrested several individuals accused of recruiting others to stage a coup in the country. The group has a history of recruiting Armenian citizens as foreign fighters in Russia’s war in Ukraine. The Armenian government faces a potential vulnerability from militant... MORE

Executive Summary: September 2024 marks the fourth anniversary of the Second Karabakh War and the first anniversary of Azerbaijan’s “anti-terror operation” against the Armenian separatist contingency in the Karabakh region, and peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan are ongoing. Baku continues to demand that Armenia... MORE

Executive Summary: The Armenian-Azerbaijani dispute has always been about both Karabakh and regional transit routes, which now center on Zangezur. Addressing this problem is far more difficult than Karabakh because it directly involves not just Baku and Yerevan but all outside powers—including Russia, Iran, Türkiye,... MORE