Executive Summary: On April 16, Russia began withdrawing its peacekeeping troops from Karabakh—18 months before their deployment officially ends. This marks the first instance that Russian armed units have left the territory of a post-Soviet state voluntarily and earlier than officially planned. The Kremlin’s withdrawal... MORE

Executive Summary: Azerbaijan is increasing the pressure on Armenia to return eight border settlements— four villages and four exclaves—under Baku’s sovereignty. Azerbaijani officials and the expert community have repeatedly demanded the return of the four border villages, voicing optimism that the issue can be solved... MORE

Executive Summary Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s “Crossroads for Peace” initiative is struggling to gain any momentum largely due to the lack of direct consultations with Baku and Ankara. Azerbaijan and Türkiye are moving ahead with work on opening the Zangezur Corridor and trans-Iranian Aras... MORE

Executive Summary: Armenia and Azerbaijan’s recent discussion of the ownership of four border villages has stoked tensions regarding both countries’ territorial integrity. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has voiced his openness to ceding these villages to Baku and establishing peace in the region. The Armenian... MORE

 Executive Summary: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg’s tour of the South Caucasus was closely observed by Moscow, whose centuries-old hegemony in the region is at stake. Armenia continues to pursue closer ties with the West, while Azerbaijan maintains a “multi-vector” foreign policy posture to avoid conflict... MORE

Executive Summary: New developments in the South Caucasus have opened a window for possible long-term rapprochement between Iran and Azerbaijan, especially on trade and transit matters. Baku seeks increased regional stability amid tense peace negotiations with Armenia and a falling out with some Western countries... MORE

Executive Summary: Azerbaijan has been developing its space industry in the past couple of years to boost its international reputation and elevate the country as a regional hub for science and technology. Expansion of the Azerbaijani space industry has led to partnerships with Israel, Türkiye,... MORE

Executive Summary: The European Mission in Armenia (EUMA) marked its first anniversary in Armenia on February 20 with its presence facing several challenges from Baku and Moscow. The European Union and Armenia regard EUMA as a crucial confidence-building measure to increase international support for shifting... MORE

Executive Summary: Following the recent presidential elections, Azerbaijan turned its focus to the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) and its role in connecting the Turkic world, indicating that Baku does not intend to align with the West or Russia. The expansion of defense cooperation within... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow seeks to boost its struggling economy through increased development of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) as a real competitor to the Suez Canal and the Bosphorus Strait. Moscow wants the INSTC to open pathways to new markets that circumvent Western monitoring... MORE