Executive Summary: On January 6, the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) announced plans to invest in Türkiye’s energy sector, strengthening bilateral ties and allowing Baku to expand its influence in Europe and the Middle East. SOCAR is critical in meeting Türkiye’s... MORE

Executive Summary: Abkhazia is experiencing an energy shortage due to low water levels in the Enguri hydroelectric dam. Illegal cryptocurrency mining further exacerbates the shortage, which has increased Abkhazia’s reliance on Russian electricity. In September, Abkhazia blocked a law allowing Russian citizens to buy real... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s Federal Security Service border guards left Armenia’s border checkpoint with Iran on December 30. Even though Russian guards will remain elsewhere on the entire stretch of the Armenia-Iran border, it represents further diversification away from Moscow. The European Union Mission Armenia (EUMA)... MORE

Executive Summary: On December 25, 2024, Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243, planned to fly from Baku to Grozny, Chechnya, crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, after a Russian surface-to-air missile exploded near the aircraft mid-flight. The incident has strained Azerbaijan-Russian relations. Azerbaijani officials criticized Moscow’s denial, lack of... MORE

Executive Summary: The Georgian parliament inaugurated a new president, Mikheil Kavelashvili, on December 29 despite continuing protests calling for repeat parliamentary elections and the continuation of EU rapprochement. Western leaders have imposed sanctions on key Georgian officials, including informal leader and billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, for... MORE

Executive Summary: Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s November 28 announcement about suspending EU integration discussions has caused a pre-revolutionary situation to develop in Georgia, with protests spreading across the country. The government has stepped up repression against the Georgian people in response to the demonstrations.... MORE

Executive Summary: On November 28, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze declared that talks about Georgia’s EU ascension would be postponed until 2028, sparking protests across the country from pro-Western citizens. The government’s heavy-handed response to the protests—including police brutality and mass detentions—has drawn condemnation from... MORE

Executive Summary: As Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s ratings continue to decline, a viral video of him shaving has been interpreted as the start of the government’s preparations for the next parliamentary elections, which are scheduled for mid-June 2026 at the latest. The resignation of... MORE

Executive Summary: Abkhaz President Aslan Bzhania resigned on November 19 following protests and pressure from the opposition. This follows a history of leadership changes in Abkhazia driven by mass protests and political unrest. The Kremlin’s financial control and strategic demands dominate Abkhazia’s politics as local... MORE

Executive Summary: The Iran-Armenia gas-for-electricity swap agreement allows both countries to address seasonal energy imbalances while enabling Iran to expand its influence in the South Caucasus region. Iran faces challenges through sanctions, electricity shortages, gas imbalance, and Russia’s dominance in Armenia’s gas market via Gazprom... MORE