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Rogozin’s Threats Highlight Russia’s Isolation
On April 2, in response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) already suspended cooperation with Russia in Afghanistan, including in counter-narcotics and helicopter maintenance programs (https://www.newsru.com/russia/27mar2014/fskn.html). A counter-narcotics program in the country is clearly in Moscow’s best interest due to Russia being the biggest market for Afghan heroin and hashish. At the same time, Russian investment in Afghanistan is picking up steam, possibly suggesting Putin’s desire to anchor his position in Central Asia (https://inosmi.ru/world/20140322/218866437.html). Afghanistan is a particularly symbolic case due to it being the graveyard of the Soviet Union after US-backed Mujahedeen turned the country into a quagmire similar to Vietnam for the United States. Restoring Russia’s position in Afghanistan would be a major symbolic victory for Vladimir Putin, who could truly claim to have exorcised the ghost of Soviet demise. Taken individually, none of these moves is likely to have an effect on the international order; but taken together, they provide evidence that a new climate of mutual suspicion, distrust and fear has settled over the world. Such international discord creates new opportunities for other rising powers in the world to become more assertive and is possibly at least a partial explanation for the timing of Chinese activism in the South China Sea and in Vietnam.