Executive Summary: Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk has caused Putin’s ratings to fall to their lowest point since the war began. The majority of Russians, nevertheless, still say they are “satisfied” with their lives. To prevent the growth of societal discontent, the Kremlin will seek to... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin has established the Maritime Collegium of the Russian Federation, which will focus on the preservation of Russia’s naval power, specifically in the Arctic and along the Northern Sea Route. International cooperation in the Arctic and China’s central role are significant components... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown little initiative in combating Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk oblast, instead defining Russia’s defense as a counter-terrorist operation. Ukraine has succeeded in altering the narrative of Russia’s dominance in the war, sending a shockwave into Russian society,... MORE

Executive Summary: On July 31, the Russian border guards deployed to Yerevan’s Zvartnots International Airport formally ceased operations. The following day, the airport became the sole responsibility of units from the Armenian Border Guard. This withdrawal only applies to the airport. Russian border guards will... MORE

(Part One) (Part Two) Executive Summary: The second phase of the joint non-strategic nuclear exercises between Belarus and Russia sought to improve combat readiness and disentangle deployment tasks with tactical nuclear weapons in the event that hostilities in Ukraine spill out into Belarusian and/or Russian... MORE

Executive Summary: After Sweden joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in March, Moscow sharply criticized Stockholm and others in the alliance for plans to improve the defenses of Gotland and other islands in the Baltic Sea. This criticism was clearly intended to dissuade them from... MORE

Executive Summary: The US-Ukraine security agreement anticipates crisis responses in the event of another Russian aggression, building the “Ukrainian future force” during the war and after, as well as future security requirements in the Black Sea. US-Ukraine joint crisis response would cover both a repeat... MORE

Executive Summary: The US-Ukraine security agreement is the most comprehensive among recent bilateral agreements with Kyiv. Like the others, however, it is not legally binding but rather a statement of intentions or a memorandum of understanding. The agreement conveys uncertainty regarding Washington’s resolve to fully... MORE

Executive Summary: The largest prisoner swap between Russia and the West since the Cold War occurred on August 1 in Ankara and seemed to work in Moscow’s favor based on those prisoners swapped. The uneven status of those swapped confirmed the effectiveness of Moscow’s strategy... MORE

Executive Summary: In the spring, Russia reported the discovery of an enormous new oil field in Antarctica.  Moscow told Western governments it had no plans to develop the field, even as Western observers warned that exploitation of the new deposits could threaten the Antarctic treaty... MORE