Executive Summary: Moscow is pushing for BRICS to collaborate more actively in the grain trade to undermine the West’s ability to influence critical decisions, such as suppliers of grain. The strategy continues to target Ukraine, one of the world’s leading grain exporters, and seeks to... MORE

Executive Summary: Political agreements between NATO and Ukraine—including a multilateral security compact and a start to accession talks this year—are necessary additions to military measures in strengthening bilateral security agreements. Accession talks will have to include the development of credible defense and deterrence plans between... MORE

Executive Summary: A month ago, Moscow feared it was losing its influence across the South Caucasus, most dramatically by pulling its “peacekeepers” early from Azerbaijan and some border guards from Armenia. Russia never lost the leverage that history, geography, and policy gave it and has... MORE

Executive Summary: Members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are entering into bilateral security agreements with Ukraine outside the alliance’s and the North Atlantic Treaty’s framework. This procedure seems to de-couple allied assistance to Ukraine from the country’s NATO accession process and to delay... MORE

Executive Summary: While many Belarusians have left the country since 2020 and the initiation of Moscow’s full-scale invasion, the migration of Western fugitives to Belarus has attracted more attention due to their questionable motives and access to government secrets. These fugitives give Minsk the opportunity... MORE

Executive Summary:  The jamming of GPS in the Nordic-Baltic region is increasingly disrupting public safety, with recent incidents affecting civilian flights. Several governments have attributed GPS interference to Russia and have called for an international political response. Whether or not the GPS disruption is intentional,... MORE

Executive Summary: The Crocus City Hall terrorist attack has led to a rise in Russian xenophobia against Central Asians and a strong crackdown on Central Asian migrants from the Kremlin. Labor migrants from Central Asia make up a majority of Russia’s migrant labor market, and... MORE

Executive Summary: Booming demand for Russians who know Chinese, a product of Putin’s turn to the East, is exacerbating long-standing fears that Moscow will lose control over lands east of the Urals. The flight of Russians from the vast and underpopulated region, combined with the... MORE

Executive Summary: Serbia’s new government is bolstering its connections with Russia through the appointment of Kremlin-linked ministers. Belgrade is also expanding its economic and media links with China following the visit of Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping. The Aleksandar Vučić administration continues to... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin began his new presidential term by holding a week of events to demonstrate his continued reign but has not received the blind following he anticipated. The Kremlin is playing up its nuclear capabilities as a response to the expansion... MORE