Executive Summary: The timing of the recent prisoner exchanges between Russia and the West has reawakened notions of negotiating a ceasefire with the Kremlin, though Moscow has shown no willingness to accept Kyiv’s most basic terms. More likely, Russian President Vladimir Putin used the exchanges... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow has reacted angrily to Japan’s agreement with the United States to set up a joint military command to counter Russian, Chinese, and North Korean moves. Russian commentators see this action as threatening Tokyo’s commitment not to use force offensively. This reaction builds... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka recently announced that he had conducted backchannel talks with Kyiv to de-escalate military tensions on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. The announcement drew attention from Russian-language media and social networks but was largely disregarded in the West, highlighting some Western countries'... MORE

Executive Summary: Türkiye is capitalizing on the geopolitical crisis in Eurasia and some post-Soviet states to expand influence through cooperation with Central Asian governments in the form of increased diplomatic involvement and cultural integration. Ankara is also expanding its integration with Central Asian military economies,... MORE

Executive Summary: In Russia, the growing threat of the Islamic State in Khorasan (ISKP) has pushed the Kremlin to expand ties with the Afghan Taliban and consider delisting the jihadist organization as a designated terrorist group. ISKP views Russia as a top-tier target due to,... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin summoned Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad to Moscow for a secret meeting the same day Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the US Congress, demonstrating Putin’s scramble to maintain influence in the Middle East. Russia’s renewed interest in the Middle... MORE

Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) engages in extensive security cooperation with other single-party socialist states. This includes deploying the People’s Armed Police (PAP) to train paramilitary and police forces in these countries, offering cybersecurity support, and assisting with online information control. Policymakers... MORE

Executive Summary: Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s visit to Islamabad and the trilateral meeting of Azerbaijan, Pakistan, and Türkiye in early July highlight growing cooperation in various fields among the three countries in trying to gain more influence over regional trade and transit. Baku and Ankara... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka celebrated the 30th anniversary of his rule on July 10, highlighting his enduring influence in Belarusian politics as the country’s only president since independence. Lukashenka’s power relies on pro-Russian support against pro-European factions, which he claims necessitates authoritarian control.... MORE

Executive Summary: Mongolia is engaging in efforts, including bilateral negotiations and official visits, to improve relations with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan following a long period of stagnant foreign policy toward Central Asia. These states share a Soviet legacy, resource extraction-oriented economies, and similar geopolitical and... MORE