Executive Summary: Belarus’s presidential election on January 26 will likely hold no democratic legitimacy, with predetermined results ensuring Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s continued rule. Public disillusionment persists amid regime-led propaganda and repression, highlighting the ongoing struggle for democratic reform in Belarus.  Growing economic and political integration is... MORE

Executive Summary: Many so-called “Global South” countries feel it is time to do away with what they regard as the double standards of rich countries and are open to alternatives. However, Beijing’s offer comes with a catch: it involves exporting the controlling logic of its... MORE

Executive Summary The Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s united front tactics include recruiting Taiwanese content creators and youth through cultural exchanges, financial incentives, and networking opportunities, according to a viral Taiwanese documentary released in December 2024. CCP officials target Taiwanese individuals, including those who have never... MORE

Executive Summary: Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s November 28 announcement about suspending EU integration discussions has caused a pre-revolutionary situation to develop in Georgia, with protests spreading across the country. The government has stepped up repression against the Georgian people in response to the demonstrations.... MORE

Executive Summary: The Tibet-Aid Program (TAP), a principal driver of development in Tibet, has ramped up significantly under Xi Jinping’s rule. The TAP has, throughout its 30-year history, sought to use material development to placate local tensions that have periodically arisen from the Party’s governance... MORE

Executive Summary: Senior Party and government officials have identified overcapacity as a major economic challenge, but state media have instead downplayed or denied its existence, framing concerns from the West as politically motivated. Regional governments have traditionally addressed overcapacity through top-down restrictions, but this strategy... MORE

Executive Summary: “Pop-up” events by People’s Republic of China (PRC) consular officials across the United States are accompanied by online propaganda campaigns on social media, as part of a gray zone approach to cognitive warfare. The events, which may contravene international and US law, are... MORE

Executive Summary: Through television broadcasts overseas, like Jongugu Sapar in Kyrgyzstan, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) presents an image of ethnic harmony and economic development in Xinjiang, downplaying or omitting signs of colonialism, forced labor, or suppression of Turkic cultural identity. The PRC’s positive... MORE

Executive Summary: As veterans from Moscow’s war in Ukraine return to Russia and are lauded as the “new elite,” crime rates are drastically increasing, creating a surge in violence across Russian society. The Kremlin’s loss of the monopoly on violence, combined with reduced numbers of... MORE

Executive Summary: Official media in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has finally begun to comment on the Ukrainian operation in Russia’s Kursk oblast, which began on August 6. It gives Ukraine low odds of success, emphasizes Russia’s strength and successes elsewhere in the conflict,... MORE