Executive Summary: On August 15, Hezbollah’s new secretary-general, Naim Qassem, rejected Lebanon’s U.S.-backed disarmament plan. Lebanon’s eventual reconstruction hinges on Hezbollah’s disarmament. The situation has deepened sectarian divides as Shia factions remain loyal but strained by losses sustained in the war with Israel. After Hezbollah... MORE

Executive Summary: Mullah Abdul Haq Wasiq, Taliban intelligence chief and former Guantanamo detainee, has become central to Afghanistan’s internal security and counter–Islamic State efforts. Once tied to al-Qaeda, Wasiq now engages in high-level talks with the CIA, including negotiations over detained Americans and coordination against... MORE

Executive Summary: Asif Adnan, son of a High Court judge and former musician, became radicalized after the 2013 Shapla Square movement and was arrested in 2014 for ties to Ansarullah Bangla Team and al-Qaeda networks, though quickly released on bail. Since then, he has reinvented... MORE

Executive Summary: Abdullah Öcalan, leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), has urged his organization to disarm and pursue a negotiated settlement with Türkiye. His role and personal status remain central sticking points. The “terror-free initiative,” promoted by Devlet Bahçeli and President Erdoğan—both longtime PKK... MORE

Executive Summary: The arrest of Mali’s General Abass Dembélé appears to be part of a purge of the nation’s civil and military leadership by General Assimi Goïta, who took power in a 2021 coup d’état. Dembélé has been an unusually competent commander and a key... MORE

Executive Summary: Niger claimed to have killed Boko Haram leader Bakura Doro in an August 22 drone strike, though this has been denied by the jihadist group. Islamic State–West Africa Province’s comparative strength in the Lake Chad region means that the potential death of Boko... MORE

Executive Summary: A deadly March 2025 clash in Mastung District in Balochistan ended the uneasy coexistence between the secular Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and Islamic State–Khorasan Province (IS–KP). The rivalry creates an opportunity for the Pakistani government to exploit as the two groups dedicate resources... MORE

Executive Summary: Jamaah Ansharusy Syariah (JAS), once an anti-Islamic State jihadist splinter group, has shifted its stance since late 2024 by recognizing Indonesia as an “Islamic state” and softening its rejection of democracy. This marks a significant ideological pivot toward actively cooperating with state institutions.... MORE

Executive Summary: Ayaba Cho Lucas, head of the Ambazonia Governing Council (AGovC), has led Cameroon’s nine-year anglophone separatist insurgency from exile in Europe. Advocating “eye for an eye” violence, Ayaba helped form the Ambazonian Defense Force (ADF), which, though lightly armed, has carried out kidnappings,... MORE

Executive Summary: Sa'ad bin Atef al-Awlaki was recently named head of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). An effective leader, al-Awlaki is expected to further entrench al-Qaeda in Yemen, while also positioning himself and AQAP as especially important contenders for leading affiliates within al-Qaeda. Little... MORE