Russia Escalates its War Against Ukraine Into Global War Against the West

By:

Age: 17 hours

(Source: Kremlin.ru)

Executive Summary:

  • North Korean troops have been deployed to support Russia in its war against Ukraine. This is part of a mutual security alliance that strengthens Russia’s frontline without requiring further mobilization.
  • The Western response has so far been cautious, with the United States downplaying the impact of North Korean aid on the conflict’s outcome, but concerns remain over the potential for further escalation.
  • The partnership between Russia and North Korea highlights a broader escalation in the conflict, suggesting a shift toward a global proxy war involving pro-Western and pro-Kremlin aligned states.

On October 23, Ukrainian Military Intelligence (HUR) revealed that North Korean troops were being deployed in Russia’s war against Ukraine. The announcement from HUR was followed by South Korea’s National Intelligence Service, which said 1,500 North Korean “special forces” arrived first with a total complement of 10,000 troops, who would be allocated into two brigades of 5,000. The United States has downplayed North Korea’s involvement since the first year of the war, believing that admitting the war was spreading would require some form of response. As HUR head Kyrylo Budanov quipped, “We have partners; they have allies” (Focus.ua, October 23).

In November 2022, on the topic of North Korea supplying ammunition to Russia, Department National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said, “We don’t believe that this will change the course of the war” (Kyiv Post, November 2, 2022). Similarly, two years later, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark A. Milley was “skeptical” that North Korean shells would make a “huge difference” in Russia’s war efforts (Holos Ameryky, September 16). US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin confirmed the presence of North Korean troops only a day before their deployment, claiming the United States lacked intelligence on their number, purpose, and location (Interfax-Ukrayina, October 23). North Korea has continued to increase its level of involvement without consequences from the United States.

At the request of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Secretary General, Mark Rutte, a delegation of South Korean intelligence and government officials will visit Brussels this week to brief NATO on North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia (NATO, October 28). The delegation will brief representatives from all 32 NATO member countries on the latest intelligence regarding North Korean troops in Russia. As South Korea and NATO strengthen their partnership in response to the North Korean troop deployment, some observers believe that discussions on providing lethal weapons may arise during the upcoming meetings. NATO has been requesting that Seoul expand its military support for Ukraine, seeing that South Korean weapons could be a game changer in the ongoing conflict. A follow-up briefing is also scheduled with the European Union’s political and security committee.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov called the news “contradictory information” distributed by the United States and South Korea. Peskov said Russia’s military cooperation with North Korea is “not directed against third countries,” conveniently ignoring the fact that North Korean military equipment is being used in the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine (Kyiv Independent, October 21). After continual denials from both Russia and North Korea as “groundless stereotyped rumors,” Pyongyang confirmed their presence as late as two days before deployment (Kyiv Post, October 22). Russian President Vladimir Putin timed his confirmation to coincide with the recent BRICS summit in Kazan and after the State Duma ratified a new security pact with North Korea (see EDM, October 28; Russian State Duma, October 24). Putin cited Article 4 of Russia and North Korea’s security treaty, which stipulates that if either country is invaded, the other would provide military assistance. Putin is using Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk as a pretext to activate Article 4 (Gazeta.ru, October 24).

A military alliance with North Korea greatly reduces some of Putin’s stress in this war. Aid from North Korea provides Russia with an advantage in its arsenal of shells over Ukraine, the avoidance of an unpopular mobilization in Russia, and the relief of Russian soldiers on the frontlines. North Korea’s participation with Russia has also led to a lack of action from Western countries afraid that they will have to retaliate if they acknowledge this partnership. Putin does not want to order an unpopular second mobilization, as his first triggered mass emigration from Russia. The daily Russian casualty rates of 1,200 are no longer being replenished by voluntary mobilization, meaning the Kremlin must undertake a pseudo-mobilization by recruiting foreign mercenaries (Radio Svoboda, July 10; see EDM, September 18). Along with avoiding discontent among Russian citizens, this alliance undermines the “US-led unipolar world,” which the Kremlin seeks to destroy.

Pyongyang also sees advantages from this partnership. North Korea benefits from escaping international isolation and building ties with Russia. It gains a testing ground for North Korean military equipment as well as advanced military and nuclear technology in exchange for their participation in Moscow’s war, increased military production in 300 munitions factories, and a growth in military exports. Additionally, North Korean soldiers receive combat experience. Chief Director of Intelligence of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov said North Korea is supplying military equipment and troops in exchange for Russian cash and nuclear weapons technology (Suspilne Novyny, October 23). Budanov added that Russia is assisting North Korea in evading sanctions (Kyiv Independent, October 24). North Korea is particularly interested in acquiring technology for tactical nuclear weapons and submarine missile launch systems (Kyiv Independent, October 24).

North Korea is Russia’s largest supplier of military equipment (Radio Svoboda, January 18). North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un told Putin during his September 2023 visit that North Korea would support Russia in its “sacred fight against the West” (see EDM, August 1, 2023; Ekho Kavkaza, September 13, 2023). Budanov said that without North Korean assistance, especially with regard to artillery shells, the situation “would have been catastrophic” for Russia (Radio Svoboda, January 21). Since the 1960s, North Korea has produced military equipment under Soviet licenses that is compatible with the Russian army today. Russia imports about half of North Korea’s annual production of shells as well as old Soviet stocks (Kyiv Independent, June 23). In 2023, the volume of shells delivered to Russia increased when Europe and the United States struggled to manufacture, buy, and supply shells for Ukraine (Evropeyska Pravda, October 13, 2023). South Korean intelligence estimates that North Korea has delivered 8 million rounds of 122- and 152-millimeter shells, along with imports of 100 KN-23 and KN-24 ballistic missiles, anti-tank missiles, rifles, rocket launchers, mortars, and an M2010 wheeled APC (Texty.org.ua, January 5; Militarnyi, July 30; Babel.ua, October 18).

While the most recent import of North Korean troops have greatly exacerbated tensions, according to Ukrainian intelligence, North Korean forces were given only perfunctory training at five military bases in eastern Russia. An intercept of Russian communications by HRU showed the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade operating in the Kursk oblast, Russia expressing concern about the ability of North Korean troops to adjust to Russian command culture and language (Ukrainian Military Intelligence, October 25). Additionally, North Korean soldiers have been spotted wearing Russian uniforms with fake IDs as residents of Russia’s autonomous republics of Sakha and Buryatia (Ukrainska Pravda, October 18). The Kremlin undertook a similar maskirovka (deception) when Russian forces with no insignia invaded Crimea in the Spring of 2014.

The deployment of North Korean troops is worsening Russia’s relations with East Asian countries (see EDM, November 3, 2023). Japan and South Korea are likely to cement a closer military alliance with the United States. Meanwhile, within South Korea (and Ukraine), calls to acquire nuclear weapons will grow. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said, “The Ukraine of today may be the East Asia of tomorrow” (Bankier.pl, October 4). The arrival of North Korean troops marks the beginning of a proxy war in Ukraine between communist North Korea and pro-Western South Korea. South Korea is sending intelligence officers to Ukraine and NATO headquarters to offer expertise on North Korean military tactics, doctrine, and operations and interrogate North Korean defectors and prisoners of war.

The arrival of North Korean troops may push South Korea, the 10th largest arms exporter in the world, to send defensive military equipment, such as air defense platforms, directly to Ukraine. South Korea’s constitution forbids the export of military equipment to war zones, though President Yoon Suk Yeol has recently spoken about revising this for Ukraine (Glavcom.ua, October 24). Until now, South Korea has circumvented this restriction by allowing European countries to buy shells on behalf of Ukraine. These indirect purchases will now likely grow (Kyiv Independent, October 23).

Despite the US declarations that North Korean military aid does not make a substantial difference in Russia’s capabilities, Russia’s desperate need for soldiers and weaponry through international trade is being fulfilled in part through North Korea. The West’s fear of provoking an “escalation” has failed to restrain Russia, which is actively escalating its war against Ukraine into a global war against the West.