Uzbekistan Seeks Stronger Cooperation with Afghanistan

Executive Summary:

• Tashkent is positioning itself as a mediator between Taliban-led Afghanistan and the international community, advocating for integration rather than isolation since the fall of Kabul to the Taliban in 2021.
• Uzbekistan aims to turn Afghanistan into a strategic trade hub, offering access to South Asian markets and ports while promoting economic integration through infrastructure, transit routes, and trade expansion.
• Afghanistan and Uzbekistan have signed numerous agreements to grow bilateral trade to $3 billion, expand electricity cooperation, and establish a joint market and free economic zone, reinforcing interdependence and economic stability.

On April 1, President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev stated in an interview that he is willing to cooperate with the European Union and other international partners in a way that supports Afghanistan’s development “to overcome the current crises” (President of Uzbekistan, April 1). He added, “I am convinced that stabilizing the situation in Afghanistan and its reconstruction are in the common interests of the Central Asian countries and the European Union” (Tolo News, April 2). On April 2, the Taliban government in Kabul welcomed the statement. Zabihullah Mujahid, a spokesperson for the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, said, “[Mirziyoyev’s] comments reflect truths that must be acknowledged. The two nations, in a spirit of sincere neighborliness and shared interests of their peoples, are moving forward with their policies” (Tolo News, April 2).

Since the fall of Kabul to the Taliban in 2021, following the withdrawal of the U.S. and European troops from Afghanistan, Uzbekistan has demonstrated increasing interest in facilitating Afghanistan’s integration into international institutions. Uzbekistan’s primary interests in this are rooted in geostrategic benefits afforded to both Uzbekistan and its Central Asian neighbors. Tashkent’s Afghan policy is set to transform Afghanistan into a transit country for Uzbekistan to South Asia, opening the window for its new regional partnerships. Afghanistan additionally has the potential to become a market and transit country for Uzbekistan’s products and value-added goods. Uzbekistan’s deepening partnership with Afghanistan could turn its southern neighbor into a key economic and political partner in the region (see EDM, December 13, 2017).

Uzbekistan is interested in Afghanistan’s international status due to its geographic connectivity. The major Central Asian river, the Amu Darya, which flows through Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan, marks the border between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan (see EDM, March 7, 2024, February 10). Afghanistan is strategically important to Uzbekistan’s access to the Chabahar port in Iran for trade (see EDM, April 18, 2022). In addition to geographic connectivity, Northern Afghanistan is home to a significant population of ethnic Uzbeks (Kun.uz, December 7, 2017; see EDM, December 13, 2017).

Uzbekistan has invested in various sectors of Afghanistan’s economy, including mining, agriculture, energy, and trade (Tolo News, March 13). In March, both countries pledged to increase their trade from $1.1 billion to $3 billion (The Tashkent Times, March 3). In February, a Taliban delegation headed by Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar Akhund visited Uzbekistan. During the visit, the two sides signed numerous deals—the exact number was unspecified—to promote their business and trade relations (Radio Television of Afghanistan, February 23). One of the agreements entails Tashkent lifting restrictions on the export of Afghan agricultural products, which will increase supplies to the Uzbek market. Tashkent and Kabul have also agreed to establish a joint market and a free economic zone (Tolo News, March 13).

Afghanistan’s major exports to Uzbekistan are agricultural goods (Afghan Voice Agency, May 3). Afghan exports and production of agricultural goods were adversely affected for four decades due to war and security issues in the country (Times of Central Asia, February 27). A preferential trade agreement is currently being discussed between the two sides to achieve more balanced bilateral trade between the amount of imports and exports each country exchanges (Tolo News, March 13).

In 2024, trade between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan reached $1.1 billion, out of which Uzbek exports were more than $1 billion to Afghanistan. This means that Uzbek exports account for nearly all the trade between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan (Tolo News, March 13). Uzbekistan’s leading export to Afghanistan is electricity, which roughly makes up 60 percent of Afghanistan’s electricity imports (Asian Development Bank, accessed May 20).

One of the other agreements outlines that Afghanistan will increase electricity imports from Uzbekistan (Radio Television of Afghanistan; UZ Daily, February 23). Tashkent and Kabul agreed to expedite work on a 500 kilovolt (kV) Power Transmission Project from Uzbekistan to Afghanistan (Tolo News, March 13). Both sides also agreed to reduce the cost of this project from $252 million to $222 million (UZ Daily, February 23). Afghanistan relies heavily on imported electricity. The country meets 80 percent of its power needs from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Iran. The 246-kilometer (153-mile) transmission line from Uzbekistan, as a result of this project, will supply 6 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity annually. Last year, Uzbekistan’s state-owned company Uzenergosotish and Afghanistan’s Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat (DABS) signed a power purchase agreement for the electricity supplies this year (Gazeta.uz, December 29, 2024).

Tashkent’s Afghan policy and growing investments in the country are likely to increase its influence and create a more stable economic environment. Geographically, Afghanistan acts as a bridge between South and Central Asia, and plays a significant role in transit and trade between the two regions (see EDM, July 10, September 19, 2024, January 15, February 25). A more stable economic environment in Afghanistan has the potential to lead to more stability overall in the country. A politically stable and economically developed Afghanistan could contribute to the economic stability of both its South Asian neighbor of Pakistan and its Central Asian neighbors of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.