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Keeping Ukraine Out of NATO Will Not Advance Peace With Russia
Executive Summary: Moscow believes that NATO will not accept Ukraine as a member as long as Russia wages war against it and wants the West to exclude Ukraine from NATO... MORE
Russia and Ukraine May Agree to Ceasefire in 2025, but Peace Not Guaranteed
Executive Summary: The last year of Russia’s war in Ukraine saw a number of turning points, including both Ukraine’s invasion of Russian territory and its massive drone attacks on Russian... MORE
Russia Updates Nuclear Doctrine, Lowering Threshold for Use of Nuclear Weapons (Part Two)
(Part One) Executive Summary: The Kremlin formally approved a new nuclear doctrine on November 19, following the West’s authorization for Ukraine to utilize its deep strike capabilities on Russian territory.... MORE
Russia Prioritizes Icebreakers in Scramble for Arctic (Part Two)
(Part One) Executive Summary Russia remains the dominant player in the Arctic icebreaker sector, but this advantage may face challenges in the coming decade due to the collaborative ICE Pact... MORE
Russian Attack on Ukraine Becomes Another Attempt at Intimidation
Executive Summary: Russia launched a new intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) against Ukraine for the first time on November 21, targeting the city of Dnipro and Ukraine’s military-industrial complex in retaliation... MORE
Russian Propaganda Fuels Nuclear Blackmail Rhetoric
Executive Summary: Over the past several months, Russian propaganda and reputable analytical platforms close to the Kremlin have increasingly threatened to use nuclear weapons against the West. On the one... MORE
Moscow Prescribes Own Terms For Talks With Trump On Ukraine
Executive Summary: President Vladimir Putin and other senior Russian officials have begun familiarizing the incoming US administration of Donald Trump with Moscow’s terms and conditions for a political settlement of... MORE
Perplexed Vladimir Putin Reckons With Outcome of US Elections
Executive Summary: The Kremlin is hopeful that the new US President-elect Donald Trump may disrupt Western unity and potentially ease pressure on Russia, especially concerning sanctions and the war in... MORE
Norwegian Intelligence Assessment on Russian Interference
Executive Summary: Following the invasion of Ukraine, Norway faces heightened security risks from Russia, including espionage attempts and incidents involving drones near critical infrastructure. In the intelligence’s assessment, Norway’s oil... MORE
Georgian Officials Reflect on Implications of Parliamentary Elections
Executive Summary: The October 26 parliamentary elections in Georgia are highly contested, with the ruling Georgian Dream party facing allegations of vote rigging. The party denies these claims, asserting the... MORE