Executive Summary: Senior Party and government officials have identified overcapacity as a major economic challenge, but state media have instead downplayed or denied its existence, framing concerns from the West as politically motivated. Regional governments have traditionally addressed overcapacity through top-down restrictions, but this strategy... MORE

Executive Summary: The Joint Sword-2024B exercise on October 14 focused on quarantining Taiwan’s ports and establishing sea and air superiority. It showcased the ability of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to coordinate maritime control with China Coast Guard (CCG) assets. “2024B” was the fourth exercise in... MORE

Executive Summary: The Party sees culture as a tool to achieve its strategic ambitions both inside and outside the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Speeches, articles, and conferences portray it as central to achieving national rejuvenation. Party discourse on culture is shot through with militaristic... MORE

Executive Summary: Researchers in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have optimized Meta’s Llama model for specialized military and security purposes. ChatBIT, an adapted Llama model, appears to be successful in demonstrations in which it was used in military contexts such as intelligence, situational analysis,... MORE

Executive Summary The Consulates General of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in New York, San Francisco, and Chicago have been conducting gray zone “pop-up” consular service events across the United States under the initiative “Bringing Consular Services into the Community,” often at non-diplomatic facilities.... MORE

Executive Summary: “Pop-up” events by People’s Republic of China (PRC) consular officials across the United States are accompanied by online propaganda campaigns on social media, as part of a gray zone approach to cognitive warfare. The events, which may contravene international and US law, are... MORE

Executive Summary: Since at least the 19th Party Congress, Xi Jinping has promoted military-industrial officials, whose presence at the vice-ministerial level has grown since the 20th Party Congress in 2022. They represent a potential emerging faction within the Chinese Communist Party. Military-industrial officials are an... MORE

Executive Summary: Two major developments have followed the Third Plenum in July. First, a series of economic data releases indicated that the plenum had done nothing to improve the country’s short-term outlook. Second, a series of stimulus measures were announced over a two-week period, that... MORE

Executive Summary: The Joint Sword 2024–B exercises by the People’s Liberation Army were in part a tool of political intimidation to “serve as a stern warning to the separatist acts of ‘Taiwan Independence’ forces,” namely the Lai Ching-te administration. Beijing’s rhetoric is doubling down on... MORE

Executive Summary: In an apparent U-turn, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has initiated stimulus policies that have boosted the stock market and are attempting to jump-start key sectors and meet the annual GDP growth target of 5 percent. In the last week of September,... MORE