Executive Summary:  The enormous rare-earth mineral reserves in Central Asia are intensifying geopolitical competition among China, the West, and Russia and have been complicated by their competing agendas. Beijing wants to develop a monopoly on rare earths, the United States and the European Union want... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s government continues to see success its foreign policy while conducting state visits to Azerbaijan and Mongolia as well as hosting Hungarian officials and businessmen. The Belarusian opposition, however, is experiencing an identity crisis, evidenced in the low polling turnout... MORE

Executive Summary: Azerbaijan has taken a more conservative stance on the war in Gaza, maintaining relations with Israel, on the one hand, and avoiding declaring Hamas a terrorist organization, on the other. Baku’s position represents a break from the responses of Türkiye, Pakistan, and many... MORE

Executive Summary: Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has emphasized the development of the country’s rare-earth mining sector as a primary goal of his government due to the country’s massive reserves. Uzbekistan has begun to work with the European Union, United States, and United Kingdom to develop... MORE

Executive Summary: Ramzan Kadyrov’s regime in Chechnya is showing signs of weakness, and Moscow may want to exploit Kadyrov’s difficulties to install a more pliable figure as the region’s new leader. The large-scale invasion of Ukraine limits the Kremlin’s ability to manipulate regional elites in... MORE

Executive Summary: Officials in Russia and the occupied Georgian territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia decried Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s declaration that by 2030, Georgians will once again live with Abkhazians and Ossetians. Georgian Dream officials and propagandists have alluded to a backdoor agreement between... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian special services are conducting a broad disinformation campaign in disseminating an alleged narrative of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s illegitimacy. The primary goal of these psychological operations is to undermine unity within Ukrainian society and dissuade further Western support for Ukraine.  A... MORE

Executive Summary:  Moscow says that Western actions in Gotland, Bornholm, and other islands in the Baltic Sea threaten Russian national security and that Russia will soon have no choice but to respond militarily. Russian President Vladimir Putin has regularly used the logic that Russia wants... MORE

Executive Summary: President Vladimir Putin once again installed new governors in several of Russia’s regions, with special focus given to the expected regional response to the appointments in Khabarovsk Krai and Kaliningrad oblast. The mission of these new appointees is to suppress the interests of... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is increasing efforts to work with foreign youth, journalists, and politicians through the federal agency Rossotrudnichestvo by offering training from leading Russian propagandists. Simultaneously, in Russia itself, raids on conscripts, illegal assignments to the front, and coercion to sign contracts with... MORE