Executive Summary: Poland is navigating internationally to maintain the unity of the North Atlantic alliance while anticipating a European defense structure without the United States. U.S. officials have praised Poland as a model for NATO states to emulate in terms of defense spending and military... MORE

Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has expanded its activities in the Arctic since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Moscow needs PRC engagement in the Arctic as sanctions limit Russian activities, but fears the PRC will try to become the... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow sees its recent diplomatic engagement with the United States as a sign of progress, with Russian President Vladimir Putin aiming to regain the initiative in peace talks. Russia is anticipating that last week’s Munich Security Conference indicates possible rifts in trans-Atlantic relations... MORE

Executive Summary: The one-year anniversary of the death of Russian dissident and anti-corruption campaigner Alexei Navalny was met with tributes throughout Russia and abroad, including Russians braving the risk of arrest to visit Navalny’s grave.  In the year since Navalny’s death, Russian authorities have continued... MORE

Executive Summary: The Treaty on Security Guarantees within the framework of the Russia-Belarus Union State allows for a nuclear weapons response to the use of nuclear or weapons of mass destruction, or certain threats to territorial integrity, against either Belarus or Russia, but it remains... MORE

Executive Summary: Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has made another move to subordinate Ingushetia (a neighboring republic within the Russian Federation) by organizing talks intended to create a Chechen-controlled muftiate in Ingushetia.  Kadyrov’s efforts to gain leverage over Ingushetia may be initially successful because of the... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine was based on flawed assumptions, such as expecting Ukrainian surrender and Western non-interference. These miscalculations have backfired, as Ukraine's determined resistance and commitment to sovereignty, as well as support from Western partners, have thwarted the Kremlin’s original plans.... MORE

Executive Summary: Abkhazia, a break-away territory controlled by Russia, is preparing for decisive presidential elections on February 15, which could determine the future trajectory of the separatist region’s foreign policy and relationship to Moscow. Russia is supporting pro-Moscow candidate, former vice-president Badra Gunba, in the... MORE

Executive Summary:  Russia and Belarus signed two security-related documents in December 2024 that deepen Belarus’s integration within Russia’s geopolitical influence and obligate the Belarusian leadership to participate in military conflicts alongside Russia, similar to the latter’s agreements with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. The... MORE

Executive Summary: The Georgian government, led by the Georgian Dream party, is implementing stringent new media censoring laws that ban foreign financing and introduce regulations for journalistic ethics. Critics fear Georgia's hard-won free media is endangered as these moves signal the erosion of democratic values... MORE