(Part One) Executive Summary: Russia has released an embryonic Treaty of final settlement with Ukraine following their June 2 bilateral meeting in Istanbul. The territorial clauses require Ukraine to recognize Russia’s de jure annexations of Crimea and four Ukrainian mainland provinces to the full extent... MORE

Executive Summary: On June 2, in Istanbul, Russia revealed the fine print of its terms for a ceasefire and political settlement with Ukraine. The stunningly successful Ukrainian Operation Spiderweb, hitting strategic airbases deep inside Russia with Ukrainian drones on June 1, overshadowed the Istanbul diplomatic... MORE

Executive Summary: On May 16, in Istanbul, Ukrainian and Russian negotiators met for the first time in more than three years of war to discuss a ceasefire. The Kremlin rejected this Western-backed initiative, countered with an old set of ceasefire preconditions, and introduced more insurmountable... MORE

Executive Summary: Two framework plans on how to end Russia’s war against Ukraine have been submitted by the United States and collectively by France, Germany, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom. The quadripartite plan marks the first entry of Western European governments into these negotiations. While... MORE

Executive Summary: The Black Sea is the only theater in which Ukraine is prevailing over Russia in the ongoing war. The Kremlin regards the U.S.-brokered, deadline-driven ceasefire talks as an opportunity to reverse Ukraine’s successes in this theater. A maritime ceasefire without demarcation lines and... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Moscow is drawing Washington into an incremental, conditions-tied process, instead of a quick and unconditional ceasefire in Russia’s war against Ukraine. The U.S. White House has agreed to “help” Russia mitigate certain Western sanctions—including U.S. ones—that affect Russian agricultural exports. Russia... MORE

Executive Summary: Consultations among the United States, Russia, and Ukraine are dealing piecemeal with narrow aspects of a putative ceasefire. Moscow stonewalls the quick, comprehensive ceasefire that the Trump administration pursues. A maritime ceasefire (moratorium on firing at sea) could result in banning Ukrainian naval... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin has declined his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump’s proposal for a comprehensive ceasefire without preconditions in Russia’s war against Ukraine.  Putin has set new preconditions for a comprehensive ceasefire, namely a unilateral halt to Ukrainian military mobilization, the resupply of... MORE

Executive Summary: General Robert Brieger, chairman of the European Union’s Military Committee, proposed a UN-mandated peace-support mission to be deployed in Ukraine following a Russia-Ukraine armistice. The European Union or some of its member states would participate alongside countries from the “Global South” acceptable to... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin has addressed the incoming U.S. administration of Donald Trump in a series of public messages, reaffirming its entrenched preconditions for a dialogue regarding Ukraine. The Kremlin wants Trump’s team to bid proactively for negotiations over Ukraine on those conditions. Moscow has... MORE