Latest articles from Vladimir Socor
NATO States Undertake Security Commitments to Kyiv Under Ukraine Compact (Part One)
Executive Summary: Twenty-three North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)member states have undertaken bilateral security commitments to Ukraine. The ten-year agreements operate under the umbrella of a Ukraine Compact, outside NATO’s framework, and postpone Ukraine’s NATO membership in deference to Russia. The assistance offers are potentially massive... MORE
Strategic Indecision Prolongs NATO’s Incremental Approach to Ukraine
Executive Summary: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit did not unveil any particular strategy—let alone a winning one—to deal with Russia’s war against Ukraine, postponing any draft strategy until next year and stopping short of recognizing that Ukraine is the immediate arena of a... MORE
Ukraine’s Membership Prospects No Clearer After NATO’s Washington Summit
Executive Summary: NATO’s Washington Summit Declaration looks noncommittal and conditions-hedged regarding Ukraine’s eventual membership in the alliance. Member states believe that Ukraine’s accession would involve the alliance in a war with Russia so long as Moscow wages war against Ukraine. The alliance’s decision to designate... MORE
Incomplete ‘America First’ Recommendations for Ending Russia’s War Against Ukraine
Executive Summary: Senior advisers to former US President Donald Trump issued recommendations for ending Russia’s war against Ukraine, observing that the Biden administration has lacked a strategy for Russian defeat and Ukraine is losing the long war of attrition. The recommendation of a quick transition... MORE
Putin Doubles-Down on Non-Negotiable Terms on Ukraine
Executive Summary: Moscow’s latest offer to start talks with Kyiv amounts to a set of non-negotiable demands, and Russian President Vladimir Putin is redoubling his attempts to impose the settlement terms discussed in 2022, supplemented by several aggravating conditions. The Kremlin has de-recognized Ukrainian President... MORE
The Kremlin Speculates on Zelenskyy’s Constitutional Status
Executive Summary: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s term technically expired in May, but the constitution and other laws allow him to continue until elections can be held, leading the Kremlin to speculate about Zelenskyy’s status and Ukraine’s presidency. Russian President Vladimir Putin aims to impose his... MORE
The Kremlin Spells Out Terms of Ukraine’s Surrender (Part Two)
(Part One) Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin is actively trying to involve Ukraine in bilateral political talks without clarifying the purpose of such discussions to present Kyiv with terms of surrender that involve de facto acceptance of Russia’s territorial gains. Moscow also aims to... MORE
The Kremlin Spells Out the Terms of Ukraine’s Surrender (Part One)
Executive Summary: The Kremlin’s preconditions for halting its war in Ukraine are still those from the spring of 2022, never agreed to by Kyiv, plus acceptance of Russia’s territorial gains since then. The terms of the Russian-designed treaty on Ukraine’s neutrality and security, recently exposed,... MORE
Bilateral Security Agreements as Part of Ukraine’s NATO Accession (Part Two)
Executive Summary: Political agreements between NATO and Ukraine—including a multilateral security compact and a start to accession talks this year—are necessary additions to military measures in strengthening bilateral security agreements. Accession talks will have to include the development of credible defense and deterrence plans between... MORE
Bilateral Security Agreements as Part of Ukraine’s NATO Accession (Part One)
Executive Summary: Members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are entering into bilateral security agreements with Ukraine outside the alliance’s and the North Atlantic Treaty’s framework. This procedure seems to de-couple allied assistance to Ukraine from the country’s NATO accession process and to delay... MORE