Belarus Offers Reset of Bilateral Relations to Lithuania

Executive Summary:

• Belarusian Foreign Affairs Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov published an op-ed outlining Minsk’s assessment of the current and prospective bilateral relations between Belarus and Lithuania, signaling a desire from Minsk to further engage with Vilnius in the future.
• In Vilnius, Ryzhenkov’s suggestions were received coldly, as the government asserts that it does not trust the Lukashenka regime. Lithuanian officials have remained firm in their stance that Minsk must prove it remains independent of Moscow before any prospect of renewing bilateral dialogue can be discussed.
• Ryzhenkov’s intended audience was likely the future Lithuanian government. If the incumbent center-right coalition government does not win the upcoming parliamentary elections, a small window of opportunity to de-escalate tensions between Minsk and Vilnius might surface.

On September 26, Belarus’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Maxim Ryzhenkov, published an op-ed outlining Minsk’s assessment of the current state and prospects in bilateral relations with Lithuania (Sb.by, September 26). The article appeared in the main government-affiliated daily news outlet, Belarus Segodnya (Belarus Today), and was quickly picked up by other media and social networks. The op-ed also received prompt reactions from the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry and several members of its parliament (LRT.lt, September 26; BNS.lt, September 28). Belarus’s offer to reset bilateral relations with Lithuania might signal a strategic move on its part to engage a future government in Vilnius that is more open to dialogue, potentially easing tensions and restoring cooperation if political winds shift away from their “pressure-only” course vis-a-vis Belarus in Lithuania.

Ryzhenkov’s article contains both harsh criticism of the incumbent Lithuanian government’s policy toward Belarus and an offer to start resuming bilateral dialogue and cooperation. On the one hand, the Belarusian minister accuses Vilnius of a “short-sighted hybrid war against the Belarusian state and people” following the “coup d’état attempt of 2020” (see EDM, May 5, 12, 2021). On the other hand, he stresses that the two peoples have a long history of peaceful and friendly co-existence, including within the same states, such as the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, Rzeczpospolita, and Soviet Union (see EDM, November 21, 2012, March 25, April 23). [1] He points out that even after 1991, when the countries embarked on geopolitically diverging development paths, they managed to advance mutually beneficial cooperation.

The op-ed’s title summarizes the key message that Ryzhenkov seems to be sending to Vilnius: “An Equal Dialogue is in Our Shared Interest.” The author emphasizes the financial losses that Lithuania itself incurs due to the sanctions against Belarus and the overall break-up in relations with Minsk. According to him, those losses reach up to $1 billion annually. Lithuanian providers of transport and logistical services, primarily the seaport of Klaipeda and the Lithuanian Railways, suffer the most damage. Since 2020, the volume of freight transport by rail has decreased by over 50 percent, and about 2,000 employees from the Lithuanian Railways have lost their jobs (The Baltic Times, April 28, 2022). The seaport in Klaipeda saw a 9 percent reduction in the volume of cargo handling compared to 2022 (Portofklaipeda.lt, January 29). Arguably, the termination of cooperation with Belarus does not explain the above losses entirely, but it could account for the lion’s share.

Belarus’s top diplomat stresses that the multiple restrictions Lithuania keeps on its border with Belarus—including the closure of four of the six border crossings—have discontinued cultural, scientific, educational, and athletic cooperation and severely limited people-to-people contact (see EDM, March 14). Ryzhenkov argues that popular demand for such contacts, cooperation, and shopping tours to Belarus exists among everyday Lithuanians. He corroborates the argument by citing statistical data from the State Border Committee of Belarus. Since Minsk established the visa-free regime through all land checkpoints for the citizens of Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia in mid-2022, Lithuanians have made up almost 60 percent of the nearly 970,000 visitors to Belarus.

The Belarusian minister suggests that Minsk and Vilnius start a bilateral dialogue and return to neighborly cooperation “before it is too late.” He asserts that Minsk is ready to discuss a roadmap for reviving the relations. As for priority measures to be included in the roadmap, Ryzhenkov names resolving the migration crisis on the border; de-escalating military tensions; restoring consultations between foreign ministries, border guards, and law enforcement agencies; and resuming cooperation on health and social security issues. He also calls on Vilnius to restore normal passenger and cargo traffic and the transit of goods, especially items of humanitarian value such as food, medicines, and fertilizers.

In Vilnius, Ryzhenkov’s suggestions were received coldly. Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen, the speaker of the Seimas, the Lithuanian parliament, stated that she does not trust the words of the Lukashenka regime and that Vilnius continues to stand by the Belarusian opposition (LRT.lt, September 26). The chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, Emanuelis Zingeris, said that Minsk must prove it remains independent of Moscow before any prospect of renewing bilateral dialogue can be discussed.

Lithuania’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs commented similarly (BNS.lt, September 28). It emphasized that Minsk must meet specific conditions for resuming bilateral relations. Belarus needs “to release all political prisoners, compensate them and all Belarusians who suffered from repression, and bring to justice those responsible for violence.” Until then, the Lithuanian government intends to continue to seek international isolation of Minsk and calls on other countries to further expand sanctions and increase political pressure on Belarusian authorities. In line with these comments, on September 30, the Ministry of Justice of Lithuania referred President Alyaksandr Lukashenka and members of his government to the International Criminal Court, accusing them of crimes against humanity (LRT.lt, September 30).

Neither Belarusian offers of dialogue without any preconditions nor Lithuanian insistence that Minsk should first comply with Western demands are new. Similar public and behind-the-scenes exchanges have already taken place. Minister Ryzhenkov’s op-ed, however, is noteworthy because it appeared just two weeks before Lithuania’s parliamentary elections. On these grounds, representatives of the governing coalition in the Seimas even accused him of provocation and attempted influence on the outcome of the upcoming vote (LRT.lt, September 26).

Yet, it appears more plausible that the intended audience of the op-ed was the future government of Lithuania and not so much the general public, as it is hard to believe that many Lithuanian voters read the Belarus Segodnya daily. According to the latest polls, the incumbent center-right coalition government seems likely to lose the forthcoming vote (PolitPro.eu, accessed October 1). If it is replaced by a new coalition government led by the Social Democratic Party of Lithuania, a small window of opportunity to de-escalate tensions between Minsk and Vilnius might surface.

In the words of a former high-level Lithuanian official, “There is a growing understanding that the uncompromising position of the incumbent coalition has failed to achieve any of the intended results vis-à-vis Belarus and, therefore, the next government might try some less confrontational ideas” (Author’s interview, September 12). Thus, with his op-ed, the Belarusian foreign minister seems to be preparing the ground in case the next Lithuanian government coalition starts looking for a new way forward.

Note:

[1] See “History of Belarus” (President.gov.by, accessed October 2) from the Belarusian government for more information on Eastern European history from the Belarusian perspective.