Duma Defense Committee Head Calls for Processing Russian Men for Draft Year-Round

Executive Summary:

• The head of the Duma’s defense committee has called for processing men to be drafted not two times a year as now but year-round, something he says would reduce tensions in the spring and fall campaigns by giving all involved time to operate more calmly.
• If adopted, his proposal could make it far easier for Moscow to move to a war footing by allowing the regime to boost the size of the military quickly, and thus making the situation less predictable for Russians and for other countries.
• It could also give the Kremlin yet another tool to limit dissent by giving Moscow the ability to call almost any young men in for examinations and to conscript dissenters more readily.

Andrey Kartapolov, chairman of the Russian State Duma’s defense committee, and his deputy, Andrey Krasov—both former senior officers in the Russian military and members of the ruling United Russia Party—have submitted a draft bill that would allow military commissariats to evaluate men year-round, not just during the two draft periods in the spring and fall, as it is now (Russian State Duma, July 22; Meduza, July 23; Cherta, July 28). [1] The measure reflects what has already become a practice in Moscow and appears to enjoy the implicit support of Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose unpublished decree on these questions is cited by Kartapolov and Krasov (Meduza, July 22). The bill is therefore likely to pass quickly when the Duma returns from its summer recess and go into country-wide effect in January 2026.

Kartapolov says that the measure is necessary both to reduce the pressures on the military commissariats and to allow men subject to the draft to know well in advance what their fate is likely to be. This would make the process more predictable for both. The current rules require evaluating those who might be drafted only during the draft period, which leaves little time for planning and hinders careful consideration of medical and other data (RBC, July 22). The measure is already being challenged, however. Victor Sobolyev, a Duma deputy from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) and who is also on the Defense Committee, says there is no evidence that the military commissariats are overburdened under the existing system and, consequently, there is no reason to make a change (Region Voice, July 26). Other Russian observers suggest that the proposal suffers from a fatal flaw of failing to make a provision to pay for doctors and other experts to work outside of the current draft periods, and yet asking that they set time away from their regular employment to do so (Cherta, July 28).

Soldiers’ rights activists also note that the supposed reassurance to men that they will not be drafted can be reversed by the authorities at any time, making the measure’s promise of “a breathing space” meaningless (Cherta, July 28). If the powers that be did so—and there is ample precedent for that. The new arrangement could allow the authorities to violate their promises and boost the size of the military more quickly by expanding the periods during which men must show up for induction. This would ramp up Moscow’s military into wartime status and give Russia the option to more easily conscript men who might protest against Kremlin policies.

Moscow’s military draft arrangements have long been problematic and unpopular, and the expanded draft quotas needed to support Putin’s war against Ukraine have only exacerbated the difficulties and popular anger (see EDM, March 31, 2022, January 20, July 27, 2023; Noviye Izvestiya, February 4). Kartapolov’s proposal is the latest effort to address the Kremlin’s concerns about the conscription process and the popular reaction to it.

The proposal is notable for what it both does and does not do. The measure does require men who become subject to the draft to show up not just during the two draft campaigns but throughout the year, presumably on the basis of their birthdays and hence entrance into the draft pool. Additionally, it requires the military commissariats to speedily qualify the draftees for service on the basis of medical tests and other information. That would, as the Duma Defense Committee head says, make the system more predictable for both the draftees and the commissariats. The failure to provide more funding to the commissariats to pay doctors and other experts beyond the current draft campaign periods, however, raises questions, as does the Kremlin’s track record of changing course on rules whenever it wants. The new measure does not, however, change the special arrangements for the residents of the Far North, who will only be processed and drafted during the current two periods, and rural residents directly involved in agriculture and teachers, who will only be processed in the fall.   

 The new measure promises to give men deferments or a date certain for call-up, thus providing them with the information they need to handle their affairs. Unfortunately, some experts say, this may be “a false sense of security” given that Moscow can and often has changed its mind and its orders (Telegram/@mediazzzona, July 22; Region Voice, July 23).  The proposed changes will make it easier for the authorities to process the draft, but not appear to give those subject to it anything like the certainty that the authors of this measure promise. As that becomes obvious, the measure may spark both alarm and action in the population.

Notes:

[1] The current Russian system, one that sets it apart from most other countries, has its roots in the Soviet past. In 1938, Stalin ordered the evaluation and draft of men for military service each year in October and November. Then, in October 1967, the Brezhnev regime divided the draft into two, with one evaluation and intake in the spring and another in the fall. That calendar has continued without significant change into post-Soviet times.