Georgian Dream and the People’s Republic of China Pursue Strategic Relationship

Executive Summary:

• Georgian Dream has shifted from an initially anti-People’s Republic of China (PRC) stance to embracing the PRC’s development model, formalizing ties through a strategic partnership signed in 2023.
• Bilateral trade and PRC investment have surged in Georgia, including a free trade agreement, infrastructure projects, and a spike in PRC company registrations and tourism.
• Pro-PRC sentiment is being pushed in Georgia through pro-government media, social networks, educational initiatives, and partnerships with ultra-right and pro-Russian groups.
• Georgian institutions are purchasing PRC surveillance technology, which has raised cybersecurity concerns as some of the technology is subject to regulation by the PRC’s National Intelligence Law.
• Tbilisi is pushing Washington and Brussels aside to achieve success in Beijing and other authoritarian regimes, ensuring power and stability at home.

On March 18, Georgian President Mikheil Kavelashvili met with the Ambassador of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to Georgia to discuss the strategic partnership between the two countries. The Georgian president noted that free trade, strategic partnership, and a visa-free regime contribute to the further development of Georgian-Chinese relations, strengthening contacts between people, business ties, and economic cooperation (Imedinews.ge, March 18). Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party has shown support for the PRC development model in its third parliamentary term, despite having originally come to power with near anti-PRC sentiments in 2012.

Since Georgia signed a memorandum of strategic political and economic partnership with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 2023, the impact on Georgia’s ruling party has become noticeable (Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in Georgia, August 7, 2023; see EDM, August 10, 2023). A study of 61 pro-PRC sources on social media in Georgia published in March 2024 found that establishing close relations with the PRC is perceived as a “political masterstroke” and a means to counterbalance the “significant pressure exerted by the United States on Georgia” (Georgia Online, March 7, 2024).

After coming to power in 2012, Georgian Dream demonstrated an economic interest in cooperation with the PRC. Under the Georgian Dream, Georgia became the first country in the region to sign a free trade agreement with the PRC in 2017, with the document entering into force in 2018 (Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia, May 13, 2017). This contributed to a significant increase in the registration of PRC businesses in Georgia between 2018 and 2019 (National Statistic Office of Georgia, accessed March 26).  From 2012 to 2024, 1,893 PRC companies were registered in Georgia. In 2024 alone, 291 new PRC companies were registered in Georgia (National Statistic Office of Georgia, accessed March 26). Under the previous governments from 1995 to 2012, only 451 companies founded by PRC citizens were registered in Georgia. In 2013 and 2024, the PRC invested approximately $655 million in Georgia, which is five times the investment amount under the previous Georgian government (2003–2012), when only $132 million was invested (Transparency.ge, March 1).

Under Georgian Dream, the turnover of goods between the two countries has almost tripled. In 2012, total goods turnover amounted to $640 million, comprising $26 million in exports and $614 million in imports. By 2024, this figure had increased to $1.916 billion, with $303 million in exports and $1.613 billion in imports (Transparency.ge, March 1). Since 2024, Georgia has seen a modest increase in interest from PRC citizens in the country’s real estate market. In particular, as local real estate experts explain, among foreigners, the main interest in Georgian real estate comes from Russians and Belarusians, and growing interest has appeared from Chinese investors (Business Media, August 4, 2024).

There were a record number of 88,583 visitors from the PRC recorded in Georgia in 2024, according to the Georgian National Tourism Administration (1tv.ge, January 15). In 2012, there were 12 times fewer visitors (7,633) (Transparency.ge, March 1). The sharp increase in visitors from the PRC is primarily due to the abolition of the visa regime for PRC citizens, as well as the intensification of direct air traffic between the two countries starting in 2023 (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Georgia, May 30, 2024)

Georgia-PRC relations have been further strengthened with the establishment of new joint organizations. The Georgia-China Regional Cooperation (GCRC) Association was established in Tbilisi in January. The purpose of the GCRC is to establish new partnerships between Georgian and Chinese business organizations (Bm.ge, January 31). Before this, the Georgian-Chinese Friendship Association and the Georgian-Chinese Center for Economic and Cultural Development were also established (see EDM, October 7, 2021; Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, September 7, 2023).

At the request of the Georgian Dream government, PRC companies have implemented major infrastructure projects worth hundreds of millions of U.S. dollars (Transparency.ge, March 1). In 2020, the Polish Ambassador to Georgia, Mariusz Mashkevich, questioned why Georgia was inviting PRC companies to build roads and tunnels, given that Georgia receives its main funding for infrastructure projects from EU countries (Radiotavisupleba.ge, December 6, 2020). Several large PRC state-owned companies are currently actively operating in Georgia (Bpn.ge, June 13, 2024). These companies are constructing roads and tunnels of strategic importance for Georgia, including the only highway connecting eastern and western Georgia. For example, in summer 2024, a 1,800-meter Rikoti tunnel was opened that had been constructed by Chinese companies. The local population expressed dissatisfaction with the quality of this tunnel, deeming it “’unsafe”’ (Georgian Public Broadcaster, August 12; ifact.ge, November 28, 2024).

The signing of the Strategic Partnership between the PRC and Georgia in 2023 marked a shift from largely economic cooperation to broader political rapprochement (Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in Georgia, August 7, 2023). This occurred in parallel with the deterioration of relations with the West. By signing a strategic partnership with a geopolitical rival of the United States and the European Union, official Tbilisi sent a clear political message to the West that it will henceforth be friends not only with the West but also with the East. The text of the partnership agreement implies a shift away from liberal values and a recognition of the perceived superiority of the PRC’s political and economic system. In particular, the agreement states, “‘Georgia believes that Chinese modernization offers a new path and a new option for mankind to achieve modernization”‘ (Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in Georgia, August 7, 2023). Additionally, the agreement allows for visa-free travel and direct flights for Georgians to the PRC (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Georgia, May 30, 2024).

The rapprochement with the PRC has afforded Georgian Dream an opportunity to compare Georgia’s strategic partnership with the PRC to its strategic partnership with the United States. In 2024, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze criticized the United States for not introducing visa-free travel for Georgian citizens. He also criticized the lack of direct air travel from the United States to Georgia (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, February 23, 2024).

Georgian Dream has launched a full-scale propaganda campaign in local pro-government media to convince Georgian citizens, the vast majority of whom are pro-Western, of the advantages of the PRC-Georgian friendship. For the past few years, Georgian Dream has been actively promoting the PRC’s economic and political model as an alternative to the liberal Western model of government. Georgian Dream propaganda has launched a campaign to shape the PRC’s image as a country with an ancient civilization, hardworking and friendly to Georgia, a reliable partner that can replace the European Union as Georgia’s strategic ally, while calling PRC President Xi Jinping a world leader (Georgia Online, March 7, 2024). A study published by a group of independent researchers in 2024 revealed that the Georgian Dream is disseminating pro-PRC propaganda through its media and social networks. At least 61 Georgian-based pro-PRC social media sources, including 18 authentic and 18 fake personal accounts, four Facebook groups, and 39 pages, were identified as sharing positive sentiments and messages related to the PRC (Georgia Online, March 7, 2024). Georgian Dream is actively utilizing pro-Russian and ultra-right groups, such as “People’s Power,” “European Socialists,” “Georgia First,” Alt-Info, as well as individual public figures, to popularize the PRC among the Georgian population (Georgia Online, March 7, 2024).

In 2023, before signing the strategic partnership, a video of a Chinese children’s choir singing a Georgian song in Georgian went viral on Georgian social networks and media. The pro-government media used this video to claim that the PRC respects the Georgian language and culture, while the West, on the contrary, forces Georgian children to sing in English (YouTube/@NikolozMzhavanadze, April 28, 2023).

Propagandists within the Georgian ruling elite have also actively disseminated the message that the PRC will assist Georgia in restoring its territorial integrity (Georgia Online, March 7, 2024). At the United Nations General Assembly in  2024, however, the PRC did not take part in the voting to support the resolution to return Georgian refugees to the occupied regions (see EDM, June 11, 2024).  Since 2008, Georgia has annually called a vote on a resolution, from which the PRC has traditionally abstained, that envisages the return of Georgian refugees to their homes in Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region (“South Ossetia”) (see EDM, June 11, 2024). The PRC’s continued abstinence in this vote signals no change in its willingness to support Georgian territorial integrity.

Georgian state institutions are increasingly purchasing PRC-made surveillance cameras. According to Georgian observers, these cameras may pose cybersecurity and information leakage risks, as some of them are subject to regulation by the PRC’s National Intelligence Law. According to Georgian non-governmental organizations (NGOs), the largest buyer of PRC surveillance cameras is the Georgian Central Electoral Commission. This agency is often accused of involvement in the falsification of the 2024 parliamentary elections, including the use of surveillance cameras at polling stations to exert psychological pressure on voters. Just before the elections, the Central Electoral Commission purchased PRC-made surveillance cameras for a total of 1,694,368 Georgian Lari ($610,632) (Business Media, January 17). Additionally, there is evidence to suggest that the authorities are also using PRC-made surveillance cameras on the central avenues of the capital to identify participants in anti-government protests (TouTube/@studiomonitori, February 20).

Cultural and educational relations have also been a key area of cooperation between Georgia and the PRC. In July 2023, while visiting the PRC, then-Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili signed a memorandum of understanding in the educational sphere, according to which it was decided to actively introduce the teaching of the Chinese language in primary and secondary schools in Georgia (Publika.ge, July 28, 2023). In February, the PRC Ambassador to Georgia, Zhou Qian, visited the Georgian Ministry of Education and discussed “strengthening cooperation in the field of education and science” with the Georgian Minister of Education, Aleksandre Tsuladze (Facebook/Ministry of Education, Science and Youth of Georgia, February 7). At a meeting with the Georgian Ministry of Education, Zhou also discussed the issue of teaching Chinese in public schools in Georgia. Following this meeting, the education ministries of both countries announced that they are already working on a draft agreement on the mutual recognition of diplomas and certificates issued in the PRC and Georgia (Facebook/Ministry of Education, Science and Youth of Georgia, February 7).

PRC influence in Georgia began approximately 15 years ago under the pro-Western United National Movement party, headed by Mikheil Saakashvili. In 2010, the first Confucius Institute was established at one of the country’s popular private universities, the Tbilisi Free University, to promote the study of the Chinese language and culture among Georgians (Freeuni.edu.ge, September 28, 2014). The establishment of the first institute was followed by the opening of other Confucius Institutes, which raised concerns in Georgia’s civil sector. In 2020, local observers began to be alarmed that the PRC had started actively spending money to attract Georgian youth and was allocating scholarships for students to study at PRC universities. The PRC’s involvement in Georgia’s education sector has given some local observers cause to claim that all of this serves to popularize the ideology of the Chinese Communist Party among Georgians (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, September 6, 2020).

In the early years of its rule, Georgian Dream perceived its relations with the PRC in a contradictory manner. In 2015, then-Minister of Justice Tea Tsulukiani proudly announced the results of her large-scale migration reform, as a result of which the flow of visitors, including those from the PRC, was sharply reduced in 2014. She then proudly announced that Georgia had achieved some success in moving toward integration with the European Union (Netgazeti.ge, March 6, 2015). Since then, however, Georgian Dream has fully aligned with the PRC and departed from the West. Georgia is now pushing Washington and Brussels aside to achieve success in Beijing and other illiberal regimes in a way that ensures power and stability at home.