Strategic Snapshot: Five Years Since Belarus’s Fraudulent 2020 Presidential Election

Today, August 9, marks the fifth anniversary of Belarus’s 2020 presidential election. This election represented a critical juncture for Belarus, not just because of its preordained outcome—Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s fraudulent and corrupt victory—but rather because of the mass mobilization of Belarusian citizens and subsequent regime crackdown in its aftermath. The scale and momentum of the protests far exceeded that of previous ones in Belarus, and appeared to take everyone, including Lukashenka, by surprise. The character of Belarusian foreign policy, the dynamics between the state and society, and the prospects for democratization underwent a significant transformation. In the years since, Belarus’s diplomatic relations with the United States and European Union have markedly deteriorated.

The regime’s response to these unprecedented demonstrations was particularly harsh, resulting in systemic violations of human rights, torture, forced disappearances, and over a dozen confirmed deaths of protesters. Lukashenka remains in power because he was able to retain the support of the Belarusian elite, police, and security forces, with significant support from Russia.

The response to the protests has left a deep imprint on Belarus. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have fled the country since 2020, and those who remain live under a deeply repressive and securitized system. Lukashenka leads an isolated regime that is considered illegitimate by many both domestically and internationally, leading to economic, political, and social regression. While Lukashenka succeeded in extending his grip over Belarus for now, many questions over Belarus’s future remain.

Selected Jamestown Analysis on Belarus’s Trajectory since August 2020

Belarus 2020–2025: Domestic Repression and Russian Influence

Dmitry Bolkunets

August 8, 2025

Executive Summary:

In the five years since Belarus’s 2020 protest movement, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s authoritarian regime has become characterized by systematic, violent repression of dissent. The country, isolated from the West, became a military foothold for Russia and fell into political, economic, and informational dependence on the Kremlin.
Western sanctions in response to Lukashenka’s human rights abuses and support for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine failed to stop Minsk’s repressive tactics. Sanctions deepened Belarus’s dependence on Russia, strengthened authoritarianism, and harmed average citizens.
The Belarusian opposition cannot influence the situation inside the country; it remains fragmented and financially dependent on Western donors. The distribution of Western aid to Belarusian pro-democracy groups inside the country and in exile is often opaque, ineffective, inefficient, and prone to corruption.
The change of power in Belarus will likely occur either under Kremlin pressure or when Lukashenka passes away.

Belarus Looking to Normalize Relations with the United States

Yauheni Preiherman

July 28, 2025

Executive Summary:

Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka welcomed U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine, General Keith Kellogg, to Minsk on June 21 in the highest-level meeting between U.S. and Belarusian officials since February 2020.
The talks resulted in a goodwill gesture from Minsk with the release of fourteen political prisoners, including former presidential hopeful Siarhei Tsikhanouski.
The meeting symbolizes a broader effort by Minsk to re-establish normal relations with Washington and demonstrate Belarus’s role and place in regional security.

Lukashenka Balances Internal Challenges with External Dependencies

Dmitry Bolkunets

March 19, 2025

Executive Summary:

Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has secured another five-year presidential term and now seeks to secure the country’s regional and international interests, including a role in peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.
Lukashenka’s first visit, as per tradition, was to Russia, where he sought support from Russian President Vladimir Putin despite breaking a gentleman’s agreement not to run in the elections.
Lukashenka is unable to sever Belarus’s ties with Moscow due to economic and political dependence and views the Kremlin as a safeguard against the West.
Belarus has few options for diplomatic maneuver aside from seeking deals on the release of political prisoners because the People’s Republic of China (PRC) prioritizes its relationship with Moscow rather than Minsk, and Lukashenka finds the West ideologically repellent.

Belarus’s ‘Calmest Elections’ Hold Potential to Pave the Way for Rapprochement

Yauheni Preiherman

January 29, 2025

Executive Summary:

Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka was named the winner of Belarus’s seventh presidential election for his seventh consecutive term. This election starkly contrasted with the last election, as it was relatively calm without mass protests.
The Western response to the election was overwhelmingly negative, with many Western states and institutions refusing to recognize it as free, fair, and in line with international standards.
Lukashenka made Belarus’s interest in unfreezing cooperation with the West emphatically clear following the election.

Belarus Faces Another Sham Election as Lukashenka Clings to Power

Dmitry Bolkunets

January 22, 2025

Executive Summary:

Belarus’s presidential election on January 26 will likely hold no democratic legitimacy, with predetermined results ensuring Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s continued rule. Public disillusionment persists amid regime-led propaganda and repression, highlighting the ongoing struggle for democratic reform in Belarus.
Growing economic and political integration is deepening Minsk’s reliance on Moscow. The Kremlin’s support safeguards Lukashenka’s regime but limits his ability to engage with the West or assert greater independence.
Opposition factions remain divided over how to combat the election, while Russia may exploit tensions to disrupt Belarus’s stability. Despite public resistance, crackdowns and propaganda solidify Lukashenka’s grip on power.

Belarus’s Economic Plight Opens Opportunity to Pressure Minsk For Release of Political Prisoners

Dmitry Bolkunets

June 4, 2024

Executive Summary:

Western efforts to trigger the release of at least 1,559 political prisoners in Belarus, who are forced to endure inhumane conditions and extreme repressions, have flagged since 2020.
Belarus’s economic needs in the current geopolitical environment are opening windows to pressure Minsk to release more political prisoners, lest its position as a transit hub for goods from China and elsewhere be disrupted.
The lack of political will in the European Union and the United States remains a stumbling block, but capitalizing on Belarus’s precarious position with transit pressures would likely produce results.

Belarus’s Parliamentary Elections and Opposition Prospects

Grigory Ioffe

March 6, 2024

Executive Summary:

Belarus’s government outlawed opposition parties in anticipation of last week’s parliamentary election, contrasting previous elections that had offered a platform for opposition parties to spread their views.
Oppositionists have primarily been forced into exile, which raises doubts about how effectively they can communicate with their potential base within Belarus to organize action.
While the Belarusian government may appear firmly in control, the country’s lack of national consolidation is a significant vulnerability that is a problem for both the government and the opposition.

Upcoming Elections in Belarus Highlight Autocratic Political Landscape

Grigory Ioffe

February 21, 2024

Executive Summary:

The upcoming Belarusian elections highlight a political landscape dominated by a few parties that support the existing regime in Minsk amid criticism of limited political alternatives and a lack of international observers.
President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s emphasis on generational change raises speculation about succession, while efforts to reinforce vigilance against foreign interference persist.
Significant positive change in Belarus’s political system will likely be contingent on a broader decline in confrontation across Europe.

What to Make of the Escalating Repressions in Belarus?

Grigory Ioffe

March 22, 2023

Executive Summary:

Minsk has opened a new, harsher phase of the post-election crackdown by handing out extended sentences to opposition journalists and leaders, signaling that ordinary dissent can now be prosecuted as “extremism.”
Despite this, some jailed opposition activists, notably Nobel laureate Ales Bialiatski, still urge for inclusive dialogue between the regime and the opposition, citing the overall fatigue within Belarusian society.
The situation for the Belarusian opposition is far worse today than at any point since 1994, and with Russia’s war against Ukraine and Western economic sanctions and isolation of Belarus continuing, it is unlikely that the opposition receives reprieve anytime soon.

Belarus’s Political Prisoners and the West

Grigory Ioffe

January 19, 2023

Executive Summary:

The Belarusian government’s crackdown on the opposition is intensifying rather than tapering off, underscoring Minsk’s shift in approach from selective targeting to across-the-board intimidation.
The Belarusian government has historically treated political prisoners as bargaining chips with the West, and relatives of current detainees urge direct talks with Lukashenka, a tactic the Belarusian opposition in exile condemns.
Lukashenka has not changed his strategy of attempting to hedge between the West and Russia, but Western leaders no longer trust his ‘peacemaker’ pitch, making potential negotiations over political prisoners more difficult.

A Belarusian Revolution? What Kind? (1, 2)

Vladimir Socor

Executive Summary:

November 4, 2021

Western supporters, detractors in Moscow, and the Belarusian authorities mischaracterize the 2020 Belarus protest movement—which emerged in response to the rigged August 9, 2020 presidential election and the government’s violent repression of subsequent protests—as a “color revolution.”
Minsk’s prosperous middle class and intelligentsia primarily drove the protests, while the working class—central to Belarus’s heavily industrialized economy—remained largely disengaged due to divergent interests and its dependence on socio-economic government support.
Unlike other post-Soviet opposition movements, the protests initially lacked anti-corruption or anti-oligarch themes, avoided staunchly pro-Western statements, and instead focused on domestic political change, with some opposition leaders even proposing stronger ties with Russia.
Belarus’s protest movement emerged partly from Russian-backed political projects, though Moscow abandoned its allies in the opposition once the protests gained grassroots momentum and began to be viewed as a “color revolution.” Later, as Moscow began to back Lukashenka and opposition leaders fled abroad, the West embraced the protests.\

Belarusian Government Reckons With Two Months of Protests

Grigory Ioffe

Executive Summary:

October 14, 2020

Nine weeks after the disputed August 9, 2020 Belarusian presidential election and three weeks after Lukashenka’s closed inauguration ceremony, anti-government protests persist but have not brought regime change.
Belarus’s absence of oligarchic rivalries, few Western-funded non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and highly consolidated power structure make political change unlikely. Meanwhile, infrastructure projects and business developments continue, signaling the regime’s stability despite political unrest.
Though opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya’s diplomatic outreach with Western countries mirrors past unsuccessful efforts to bring about political change in Belarus, her profile and that of the opposition “Coordination Council” may endure.

See PDF version here.

For more Jamestown coverage on Belarus, see here.