Latest Articles about Africa
Brief: East Africa More Likely Than West Africa to Emerge as Jihadist Foreign Fighter Hotspot
Executive Summary: A flood of foreign fighters to IS provinces in Africa is unlikely, but East Africa is more primed than West Africa to see an inflow of jihadists from around the world due to cultural differences and the harsh environment of the Sahel. After... MORE
Brief: Nigerian Bandits and Former Shekau Faction Likely Behind Recent Abductions
Executive Summary Nigeria struggles to provide security to its population, though efforts like the use of artificial intelligence to track militant movement patterns may aid the government in the future. On March 7, bandits in Nigeria's Kaduna State abducted an estimated 280 students from a... MORE
Moscow Expands Military Influence in Africa
Executive Summary: Russia’s advances in Africa are moving to a new political-strategic level by establishing further military and economic ties across the continent. Moscow has long worked to gain influence across the Sahel and is now aiming to establish footholds throughout Sub-Saharan Africa and the... MORE
Russian Military Intelligence Takes Over Wagner Operations in Libya
Executive Summary: Moscow is consolidating the Wagner Group’s operations in Libya under the direct control of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (GRU) and relying on the African Corps under the purview of Russia’s deputy defense minister. Field Marshal... MORE
After Prigozhin: The Anatomy of Russia’s Evolving Private Military and Mercenary Industry
Executive Summary: The Russian mercenary industry has transformed since Moscow’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 with private military companies (PMCs) and other paramilitary formations taking on a more prominent role in Russia’s military operations. PMCs and other mercenary groups have become key players in... MORE
Russia Struggles for ‘Hearts and Minds’ in Global South (Part Two)
(Part One) Executive Summary Russian special services are actively disseminating disinformation to influence public opinion in Africa. The disinformation campaign replicates Soviet-era themes that emphasize narratives alleging the West’s compromising of African countries’ sovereignty. These themes continue to have resonance in the region because of... MORE
Russia Struggles for ‘Hearts and Minds’ in Global South (Part One)
Executive Summary: Russia uses anti-colonial narratives to build influence in Africa, leveraging historical grievances with Western imperialism and spreading disinformation. Putin claims that Africa is one of “Russia’s crucial and trustworthy partners” to unite them in a relationship based on a mutual goal to fight... MORE
Will Al-Shabaab Respond to Somaliland’s Red Sea Agreement with Ethiopia?
Executive Summary Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) granting Ethiopia access to build a naval base on Somaliland's coast. This was offered in exchange for Ethiopia recognizing Somaliland as an independent state, drawing condemnation from al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab has failed to establish itself... MORE
Wagner’s Influence in Central African Republic Wanes as American PMC Enters the Scene
Executive Summary: President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, nicknamed “President Wagner,” of the Central African Republic (CAR) welcomed the Wagner Group in 2018 but is now “in the process of diversifying its relations.” Wagner’s influence in the CAR has waned following the Prigozhin mutiny despite reassurances from Russian... MORE
Brief: Can Mozambique Keep Cabo Delgado Secure from Islamic State Fighters?
Executive Summary The Mozambican army has declared the Islamic State affiliate active in its country effectively "defeated," with only 200 to 250 active fighters remaining. While Islamic State in Mozambique may be significantly degraded, it could capitalize upon the planned withdrawal of the Southern African... MORE