Executive Summary  Russia is actively expanding ties with Niger’s military junta to consolidate control over resource-rich assets and to push out Western influence. Moscow has now signed multiple agreements to provide security guarantees to Abdourahamane Tchiani and potentially take over the rights to several Nigerien... MORE

Executive Summary Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) aims to break its ongoing stalemate with Nigerian forces by deploying suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (SVBIEDs). This represents the first time in five years that ISWAP has used SVBIEDs, with at least four bombings occurring... MORE

Executive Summary: A flood of foreign fighters to IS provinces in Africa is unlikely, but East Africa is more primed than West Africa to see an inflow of jihadists from around the world due to cultural differences and the harsh environment of the Sahel. After... MORE

Executive Summary Nigeria struggles to provide security to its population, though efforts like the use of artificial intelligence to track militant movement patterns may aid the government in the future. On March 7, bandits in Nigeria's Kaduna State abducted an estimated 280 students from a... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s advances in Africa are moving to a new political-strategic level by establishing further military and economic ties across the continent. Moscow has long worked to gain influence across the Sahel and is now aiming to establish footholds throughout Sub-Saharan Africa and the... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is consolidating the Wagner Group’s operations in Libya under the direct control of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (GRU) and relying on the African Corps under the purview of Russia’s deputy defense minister. Field Marshal... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian mercenary industry has transformed since Moscow’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 with private military companies (PMCs) and other paramilitary formations taking on a more prominent role in Russia’s military operations. PMCs and other mercenary groups have become key players in... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia uses anti-colonial narratives to build influence in Africa, leveraging historical grievances with Western imperialism and spreading disinformation. Putin claims that Africa is one of “Russia’s crucial and trustworthy partners” to unite them in a relationship based on a mutual goal to fight... MORE

Executive Summary While Boko Haram is the most widely known security threat in Nigeria, the total number of deaths connected to violent banditry in northwestern Nigeria now rivals those caused by Boko Haram at its violent "peak" in 2015. Banditry is traditionally thought of as... MORE

Executive Summary Boko Haram and its ISWAP faction have been locked in a stalemate with the Nigerian military. The group may only seek to preserve the status quo rather than risk provoking a major army offensive. The stalemate has persisted since 2014. ISWAP briefly expanded... MORE