Executive Summary: The Russian Defense Ministry posted and then took down a plan for Moscow to unilaterally redraw sea borders in the Baltic region, alarming and then reassuring observers inclined to dismiss this as bureaucratic infighting. The document as first posted is consistent with Russian... MORE

Executive Summary:  The jamming of GPS in the Nordic-Baltic region is increasingly disrupting public safety, with recent incidents affecting civilian flights. Several governments have attributed GPS interference to Russia and have called for an international political response. Whether or not the GPS disruption is intentional,... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian-cultivated circles overlap with People’s Republic of China (PRC) intelligence networks. These intersections include politicians on both extremes of Europe’s political spectrum, and across countries which include Belgium, Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic. “Daniel Woo,” a PRC state security officer, is a... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus plays an essential geostrategic role in the logistical transport networks between Asia and Europe through the “Northern Corridor,” which passes through Russia and Belarus. Although Western sanctions due to the war in Ukraine have negatively affected the volume of transport through the... MORE

Russia’s geopolitical influence is increasingly shrinking in the Baltic Sea region. The most recent episode in the region’s worsening relations with Moscow was the sudden arrival of hundreds of migrants from the Middle East and Africa in November to the busy border crossing between Russia... MORE

On November 15, an important event took place in Latvia involving Russian émigrés. A conference was held for the “Free Ingria” movement, where participants met to collaborate on a plan to separate St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Oblast, or Ingria, from the Vladimir Putin regime... MORE

Western policy toward Belarus depends on policymakers’ willingness to scrutinize the facts on the ground. In this regard, two narratives undergirding the West’s approach are at war with one another. Some argue that Belarus has become inseparable from Russia and that there is no need... MORE

In September 2023, all European Union member states bordering Russia introduced an entry ban on cars sporting Russian license plates. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were the first to implement the policy, albeit with Vilnius leaving open an exception for transit from the Russian exclave Kaliningrad... MORE

Nansen passports may soon be making a comeback as a means of coping with the possibility that thousands of Belarusians and potentially tens of thousands of Russians will be left without statehood due to actions by their governments and their flight abroad (Nezavisimaya gazeta, March... MORE

According to Diana Panchenko, a Ukrainian journalist considered by some to be a “pro-Russian propagandist,” most commentators seemed to fixate on one particular admission coming from Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s two-hour interview on August 17 (Zerkalo, August 17). Specifically, Panchenko referred to the widespread discussion... MORE