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Latest Articles about Belarus
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Belarus’s Economic Plight Opens Opportunity to Pressure Minsk For Release of Political Prisoners
Executive Summary: Western efforts to trigger the release of at least 1,559 political prisoners in Belarus, who are forced to endure inhumane conditions and extreme repressions, have flagged since 2020. Belarus’s economic needs in the current geopolitical environment are opening windows to pressure Minsk to... MORE
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Belarus Promotes Economic Interests in Azerbaijan
Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka conducted a state visit to Azerbaijan to meet with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, where they reinforced their close personal bond and chemistry. The strong personal chemistry between Lukashenka and Aliyev appears to uphold the exceptionally close bilateral connections between... MORE
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Belarus’s Political Dichotomy Continues to Widen
Executive Summary: Belarusian politics are divided into two factions: the Lukashenka regime, with strong ties to Russia, located within Belarus, and the opposition, whose members are largely in exile. The Lukashenka regime continues to rely on Russia economically but has worked to increase trade cooperation... MORE
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Russia and Belarus Hold Joint Non-Strategic Nuclear Exercises (Part One)
Executive Summary: Russia and Belarus announced a joint tactical nuclear exercise to signal to Western countries that deploying their troops in Ukraine will lead to nuclear escalation. The general staffs of the Russian and Belarusian armed forces are preparing tactical nuclear strikes on targets located... MORE
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Belarus Sees Irregular Flow of Migrants
Executive Summary: While many Belarusians have left the country since 2020 and the initiation of Moscow’s full-scale invasion, the migration of Western fugitives to Belarus has attracted more attention due to their questionable motives and access to government secrets. These fugitives give Minsk the opportunity... MORE
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Minsk Confirms Deployment of Russian Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Belarus
Executive Summary: At the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly in April, Belarusian officials confirmed that Russian tactical nuclear weapons had been deployed in Belarus. The new military doctrine of Belarus declares the role of Russian TNWs as an essential component of preventive deterrence against unfriendly states. The... MORE
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All-Belarusian People’s Assembly Becomes Central Pillar for Political Transition in Belarus
Executive Summary: The All-Belarusian People’s Assembly (ABPA) has become the central body in overseeing any political transition in Belarus. The assembly has been vested with powers that give it supreme authority over the president’s removal from office, though Lukashenka was elected as the ABPA’s chair.... MORE
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Russia’s War in Ukraine Starves Belarusian Railways of Upgrades
Executive Summary: Belarus remains heavily dependent on Russia for its export infrastructure, especially as its Ukrainian options have been closed since Moscow launched the full-scale invasion. Minsk is seeking alternatives to Russian railways by using the still incomplete International North-South Transport Corridor and discussing plans... MORE
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Lukashenka Utilizes All-Belarusian People’s Assembly to Secure Legacy and Prevent Belarusian Gorbachev
Executive Summary: On April 24 and 25, the seventh convocation of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly (OBPA), the primary organ of state power in Belarus, assembled in Minsk. Lukashenka views the OBPA as a preemptive measure against the rise of a Gorbachev-like post-Lukashenka era and as... MORE
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Russia and Belarus War-Game Nuclear Attack on Ukraine and Eastern Europe
Executive Summary: The deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is a political signal to unnerve the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) easternmost member states and a practical preparation for nuclear escalation. Russia’s storage of nuclear warheads on Belarusian territory suggests that the Kremlin... MORE