Executive Summary: A recent joint investigation by the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN) and Moldovan outlet CU SENS confirmed that Moscow had established secret paramilitary camps in the Balkans to train Moldovan citizens in destabilization tactics ahead of Moldova’s October 2024 presidential elections. The Kremlin... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine’s soaring fiscal deficit, trade imbalances, and stalled reforms undermine post-war reconstruction planning. Foreign investments critical for recovery are also deterred by judicial inefficiencies, incomplete energy sector reforms, and entrenched corruption.  Uncertain financial aid, monetary instability, and mismanaged state assets limit prospects for... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka welcomed U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine, General Keith Kellogg, to Minsk on June 21 in the highest-level meeting between U.S. and Belarusian officials since February 2020. The talks resulted in a goodwill gesture from Minsk with the release of... MORE

Executive Summary: The July 23 Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul yielded no diplomatic progress, as both sides remain entrenched in incompatible positions. Both sides, however, found it important to demonstrate readiness for further communication and to continue the exchange of prisoners. Both Ukraine and Russia appear... MORE

Executive Summary: A series of investigations and arrests across Eurasia has revealed a rise in international call center fraud operations, underscoring the increasingly transnational nature of cybercrime in the region. Russian-language cybercrime has historically avoided targeting Russia or members of the Commonwealth of Independent States,... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine aimed to reassert dominance over the former Soviet space, but Ukraine’s resistance and sustained Western support have instead weakened Moscow’s influence in the region. Moscow’s war against Ukraine has led the former Soviet republics to pursue... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is experiencing a decline in morale as its war against Ukraine enters its fourth summer, with feelings of hope and pride appearing to be replaced by indifference and fear. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s concerns about public discontent with the war are apparent... MORE

We are publishing this piece because Roman Bezsmertny is a Ukrainian diplomat who participated in nearly 60 rounds of talks with Russian representatives during the Minsk peace process. His experience and advice offer unique insight into Moscow’s negotiating tactics. This holds immediate implications for the... MORE

Executive Summary: The Ukrainian Air Force is seeing increased success in eliminating Russian aircraft and missiles, thereby opening up more opportunities for offensive air and ground operations. Ukrainian units are effectively using Western aircraft (e.g., F-16 and Mirage fighter jets) and various missile and bomb... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s fake readiness to negotiate the end of Moscow’s war against Ukraine amid its relentless attacks on Ukraine appears to be coming to a breaking point as the United States continues its efforts to build a peace agreement. Continued North... MORE