Executive Summary: Moscow is increasingly alarmed by the spread of Prometheanism, a set of ideas developed in pre-war Poland that posits that the Muscovite state is an empire, joint efforts can best achieve its end, and its demise will bring more good than harm. This... MORE

Executive Summary: After fleeing Belarus in 2020, opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya received unprecedented support from Lithuania and Western partners, including head-of-state-level security and diplomatic privileges. In October, Lithuania downgraded Tsikhanouskaya’s security, citing reduced threats and financial concerns. Public backlash led Lithuania to temporarily reinstate Tsikhanouskaya’s... MORE

Executive Summary: Moldova’s pro-European ruling party retained its majority in the September 24 parliamentary elections despite Moscow’s attempts to influence the elections in favor of pro-Russian parties. A series of setbacks in Russia’s policy toward Moldova undermined the position of Dmitry Kozak, former deputy chief... MORE

Executive Summary: U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to meet in Budapest to discuss Russia’s war against Ukraine during an October 16 phone call that preempted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Washington. Putin’s phone call yielded a short-term advantage by... MORE

Executive Summary: Ahead of winter, Russia launched another campaign of combined air strikes on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, including energy, gas production, and railway facilities. Russia is continually upgrading its missiles and strike drones, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of its air attacks. Several Ukrainian cities have... MORE

Executive Summary: Kyiv is moving toward more openly backing non-Russian national movements within Russia. It is convinced that such efforts will help it defeat Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and that the decolonization of Russia will ensure Ukraine’s future security. Such moves, which have their origins... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow’s muted response to the October 10 announcement of Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado’s Nobel Peace Prize win and the ceasefire in Gaza underline how Russia’s war against Ukraine has come to dominate the Kremlin’s attention. Recent independent polling by the Levada... MORE

Executive Summary: In September, a series of Russian drone and military incursions into North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) airspace over Poland and Estonia triggered emergency consultations under Article 4 and revived debate on escalation of deterrence. The Russia–Belarus Zapad-2025 exercise revealed a shift toward precision-strike,... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s 2022 invasion triggered a surge in Ukraine’s defense sector, experiencing a 350 percent growth since 2022. Ukraine leads globally in tactical and long-range drones, aiming to become the world’s “drone capital.” Upcoming artificial intelligence (AI)-driven swarms are anticipated to replace one-operator systems,... MORE

Executive Summary: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, on August 19, met with Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Minsk following a string of previous high-level visits that expanded bilateral relations in commercial and military spheres. Tensions with the West have pushed Belarus and Iran to seek alignment... MORE