In January 2016, Belarus’s gross domestic product (GDP) was 4.3 percent lower than in January 2015 (Infofocus, February 2016). Since refined oil accounts for one-third of Belarusian exports, the steep decline in oil prices is the major factor explaining this shrinking GDP. It works directly,... MORE

Russia, a common enemy since recently, has prompted Turkey and Ukraine, the big neighbors across the Black Sea, to step up political, economic and military ties. Bilateral contacts have been particularly intensive this year. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu flew to Kyiv in February, followed... MORE

As anticipated (see EDM, February 26), the “Normandy” meeting on March 3–4, in Paris, cornered Ukraine to extract its acceptance of “elections” in the Russian-occupied territory. German Minister of Foreign Affairs Frank-Walter Steinmeier did almost all the hectoring; his French counterpart, Jean-Marie Ayrault, provided the... MORE

A game changing Constitutional Court decision, announced on a Friday afternoon (March 4) before a four-day holiday weekend, took much of the Moldovan political establishment, expert community and the broader public by surprise. Voters will now be able to elect the country’s president directly. The... MORE

In January 2009, that is, during the previous (2008–2010) thaw between Belarus and the West, the International Monetary Fund set up a line of credit for Minsk worth $2.46 billion and then increased it to $3.56 billion precisely when (June 2009) Russia reneged on transmitting... MORE

Moscow’s use of military power in Syria differs from its pursuit of warfare in Georgia in August 2008, or more recently in Ukraine. This appears to be confirmed by a comparison of the force sizes deployed in Georgia and Syria, as well as the use... MORE

In recent months, military affairs have featured high on the political and media agendas in Belarus. The House of Representatives of the National Assembly (the parliament’s lower chamber) is soon expected to consider and pass a new updated version of the country’s military doctrine. The... MORE

In Kyiv, on February 22–23, with a working visit, German Minister of Foreign Affairs Frank-Walter Steinmeier portrayed the “Normandy” group’s upcoming March 3 meeting in Paris as a make-or-break event, designed to overcome the diplomatic deadlock over “the Ukraine crisis.” The diplomatic process is stuck... MORE

Negotiations in the Minsk Contact Group on political issues are so configured as to push Ukraine into recognizing the Moscow-controlled Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (DPR, LPR), first de facto and then de jure, through local elections and a “special status.” For its part, Ukraine... MORE

The removal of the sanctions on Belarus by the European Union continues to be one of the most debated topics in the Belarusian media. The most meaningful piece about sanctions, however, has arguably shown up not in Belarus but in the Russian daily Izvestia (Izvestia,... MORE