Executive Summary: Putin’s claims that he will never give up the “spoils” won in Ukraine keep Russia locked in the cage of war and render any notions of peace negotiations unrealistic. The degradation of the Russian economy and growing discontent at home casts doubts on... MORE

Executive Summary: The new law granting Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka life-long immunity was necessary to avoid future political retribution that could destabilize Belarus. Western misconceptions of official Minsk’s actions greatly hamper any chances of reversing Belarus’s growing economic dependence on Russia. Positive change in Belarus... MORE

Executive summary: The Kremlin views Serbia as a strategic asset in the Balkans that expands Russia’s geopolitical reach, weakens Western cohesion, and undermines transatlantic institutions. The Serbian government benefits from its alliance with Moscow by having an advocate on the UN Security Council to block... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian veterans returning from Ukraine have caused violent crime rates to skyrocket even more dramatically than veterans of the Afghan and Chechen wars. The Kremlin’s own policies of recruiting soldiers along ethnic lines and leniently handling veterans who do commit crimes are compounding... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine’s recent successes at sea have pushed Moscow to consider relocating its vessels to a planned naval base in the Russian-controlled Republic of Abkhazia in Georgia. Ukrainian attacks have effectively pushed the Russian Black Sea fleet out of Crimea, opening the possibility of... MORE

Since becoming ataman of the Cossacks in November 2023, Vitaly Kuznetsov has charted a new direction for the state-registered movement that replicates the Wagner Group model in some ways. In a December interview, Kuznetsov made clear that one of his main tasks is the unification... MORE

At the end of last year, it was becoming increasingly apparent that Russian industry was struggling with flagging production rates and a shortage of technical personnel (see EDM, September 21, October 31, December 4, 2023). The most recent update of Russia’s industrial statistics for the... MORE

Stalemate is presently used most often to describe the current state of Russia’s war against Ukraine these days. Fighting along the frontlines, however, is quite fluid and may be approaching a major turn. President Vladimir Putin remains defiantly confident that Russian forces are making steady... MORE

Executive Summary German authorities arrested four alleged Hamas operatives in Berlin and Rotterdam in December 2023 for allegedly plotting attacks on Jewish sites in Europe. Three additional suspects were arrested in Denmark and Netherlands. The German interior ministry considers Berlin-based Majed al-Zeer to be "[Hamas's]... MORE

Moldova’s ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) is setting the stage to hold a national referendum on the country’s EU membership this fall, on the same day as the planned presidential elections (Deschide.md, January 10). This follows President Maia Sandu’s recent announcement that she... MORE