Executive Summary: The August 8 U.S.-mediated meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan launched the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), granting Azerbaijan direct land access to its Nakhchivan exclave via Armenian territory and symbolically sidestepping disputed corridor... MORE

Executive Summary: A July 19 Iranian drone strike killed a Free Life Party of Kurdistan (PJAK) fighter in Iraqi Kurdistan, prompting retaliatory attacks by PJAK in Iran’s Baneh and Sardasht regions and signaling a breakdown in the 2011 ceasefire. PJAK has emphasized it will not... MORE

The Caspian Sea, once considered a “Russian lake,” is becoming a more multipolar space. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan have expanded their navies, built new security accords with each other, and increased cooperation with Türkiye. Russia has responded with naval cooperation with Iran, but this alliance... MORE

Executive Summary: Azerbaijan and Armenia are considering an agreement featuring U.S. management of transit through Armenia via the Zangezur Corridor to link Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave. Russia and Iran are staunchly opposed to the proposal because they fear that U.S. involvement in the route... MORE

Executive Summary: The Caspian Sea is becoming a site of geopolitical conflict as Russia is rapidly losing its dominance over the four other littoral states: Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan have been expanding their fleets and are now entering into security... MORE

Executive Summary: The Islamic Republic of Iran is cracking down on the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK) in the aftermath of its war with Israel. The PJAK appears to be reaching out to potential allies in the West, and has likewise tried to build a... MORE

Executive Summary: Georgia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Khvtisiashvili expressed solidarity with Iran following the Israeli airstrikes, sparking outrage from the Israeli Embassy and raising domestic accusations of Georgian Dream acting as a regional proxy for Tehran. Russia is intensifying efforts to pull Georgia into strategic... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin miscalculated the United States’s readiness to support Israel’s air campaign and underestimated the speed of the ceasefire with Iran, underscoring Russia’s diminishing leverage in Middle Eastern conflicts. Russia cannot offer Iran tangible aid despite vocal support, pushing Tehran away from Russia... MORE

Executive Summary: Beijing interprets recent U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities as a demonstration of deterrence aimed at supporters of Iran’s Islamic regime. In response, state media showcased the Yunjian-1000 bunker-busting missile, implying that the People’s Liberation Army has superior capabilities than those of the... MORE

Executive Summary: Kremlin officials are condemning the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities as violations of international law while simultaneously committing violations of Ukrainian sovereignty. Moscow presents itself as a defender of sovereignty and global nuclear norms in its discourse toward Iran, yet it disregards... MORE