Executive Summary: On August 15, Hezbollah’s new secretary-general, Naim Qassem, rejected Lebanon’s U.S.-backed disarmament plan. Lebanon’s eventual reconstruction hinges on Hezbollah’s disarmament. The situation has deepened sectarian divides as Shia factions remain loyal but strained by losses sustained in the war with Israel. After Hezbollah... MORE

Executive Summary: On September 9, a high-level Russian delegation, led by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, paid an unannounced visit to Damascus and held talks with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani. The talks focused on energy, military basing, and reconstruction, with Damascus demanding cheaper fuel... MORE

Executive Summary: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, on August 19, met with Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Minsk following a string of previous high-level visits that expanded bilateral relations in commercial and military spheres. Tensions with the West have pushed Belarus and Iran to seek alignment... MORE

Executive Summary: The August 8 U.S.-mediated meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan launched the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), granting Azerbaijan direct land access to its Nakhchivan exclave via Armenian territory and symbolically sidestepping disputed corridor... MORE

Executive Summary: In July 2025, heavy communal violence in Suwayda between Druze and Bedouin tribes escalated into open battles with Syrian government forces, leaving hundreds dead. The clashes marked the most serious confrontation yet between Druze fighters and the new regime under President Ahmed al-Sharaa.... MORE

Executive Summary: Sa'ad bin Atef al-Awlaki was recently named head of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). An effective leader, al-Awlaki is expected to further entrench al-Qaeda in Yemen, while also positioning himself and AQAP as especially important contenders for leading affiliates within al-Qaeda. Little... MORE

Executive Summary: A July 19 Iranian drone strike killed a Free Life Party of Kurdistan (PJAK) fighter in Iraqi Kurdistan, prompting retaliatory attacks by PJAK in Iran’s Baneh and Sardasht regions and signaling a breakdown in the 2011 ceasefire. PJAK has emphasized it will not... MORE

Executive Summary: The Sultan Suleiman Shah Division ("Amshat") and Hamza Division ("Hamzat") have resisted integration into Syria’s new military hierarchy post-Assad, maintaining direct financial and logistical ties to Turkey. The groups appear to be continuing to serve Ankara’s strategic interests, deploying them as a proxy... MORE

Executive Summary: Mazloum Abdi is the commander-in-chief of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and a major player in Syria’s new political environment. Abdi is expected to continue to use his support among the country’s Kurdish population and close relationship with the United States as leverage... MORE

The Caspian Sea, once considered a “Russian lake,” is becoming a more multipolar space. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan have expanded their navies, built new security accords with each other, and increased cooperation with Türkiye. Russia has responded with naval cooperation with Iran, but this alliance... MORE