Executive Summary:  Russian military losses typically have affected Russia and its neighbors at home even more than Russian victories. Moscow is now worried that the ouster of Bashar al-Assad will influence the post-Soviet space and Muslim regions in Russia. To reduce these dangers, the Kremlin... MORE

Executive Summary: The South Caucasus has grown increasingly close to the Middle East. One region that stands out is the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which looks at the Caucasus as a transit and a land for investments. Tbilisi’s closer ties with the GCC present a... MORE

Executive Summary: In Yemen, the internationally recognized government-aligned National Resistance Forces (NRF) are led by General Tariq Saleh, the nephew of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh. Saleh’s faction holds a critical chokepoint, which prevents the Houthis from seizing the rest of the country’s Red Sea... MORE

Executive Summary: Since becoming the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin has made developing a north-south trade corridor a centerpiece of his geoeconomic and geopolitical program. This would counter the impact of east-west routes and align the global south against the West. He has now declared this... MORE

Executive Summary: Western sanctions against Russia have hampered northern cargo transportation routes used by most Eurasian states, leading Russia to increase relations with the Taliban government on transport communications to connect to the South Asian market. Extending the International North-South Transport Corridor to Afghanistan and... MORE

The challenges that face the United States and our allies require greater understanding on the parts of both government and society. Democratic governance means shared responsibilities. Citizens are not subjects. Open source is the only way to share information and develop a common understanding between... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia has expanded its ties with groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, leveraging its relationship with Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” to increase geopolitical influence through military and security cooperation, including supplying weapons and conducting diplomatic engagements. Moscow is not pursuing... MORE

Executive Summary: The Iran-Armenia gas-for-electricity swap agreement allows both countries to address seasonal energy imbalances while enabling Iran to expand its influence in the South Caucasus region. Iran faces challenges through sanctions, electricity shortages, gas imbalance, and Russia’s dominance in Armenia’s gas market via Gazprom... MORE

Executive Summary: In October, Azerbaijani and Iranian officials discussed the Aras Corridor railway project, a strategic alternative to the contested Zangezur Corridor, amid ongoing Azerbaijan-Armenia tensions and diplomatic efforts to enhance regional connectivity following the 2020 Karabakh War. The Aras Corridor strengthens Azerbaijan–Türkiye–Central Asia ties... MORE

Executive Summary: Cooperation between Iran and Russia has improved incrementally since 2022, especially in the military sphere. The two countries are expected to sign a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement toward the end of this year.  Moscow and Tehran have faced challenges due to Western sanctions and... MORE