Executive Summary: Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has made another move to subordinate Ingushetia (a neighboring republic within the Russian Federation) by organizing talks intended to create a Chechen-controlled muftiate in Ingushetia.  Kadyrov’s efforts to gain leverage over Ingushetia may be initially successful because of the... MORE

Executive Summary: The Ukrainian parliament has voted to recognize Russian actions against the Circassians in the 19th century as an act of genocide—a move Circassians and human rights activists hope will lead other countries to follow. Moscow is working to blunt the impact of Ukraine’s... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow has used various measures short of a new mobilization to fill the ranks of its dwindling army in Ukraine and appears ready to force protesters into the army and send them to fight. In Dagestan, a republic that has often been bellwether... MORE

Executive Summary: Since Russian President Vladimir Putin seized Crimea in 2014 and even more since he launched his expanded invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Kyiv has sought to develop ties with non-Russian groups in Russia on the principle that “the enemy of my enemy is... MORE

Executive Summary: A new, more radical, and more deadly threat to Russian control in the North Caucasus is emerging. The new movement is based on Islamist ideas rather than concerns about ethnic hierarchies or anger about corruption and situated primarily in Dagestan rather than Chechnya.... MORE

Executive Summary: The deadly Islamist violence against Christian and Jewish centers in two Dagestani cities is the latest in a string of such actions involving Dagestanis and a continuation of the tectonic shifts there that cast doubt on Moscow’s control. These developments are rooted in... MORE

Executive Summary: Ramzan Kadyrov’s regime in Chechnya is showing signs of weakness, and Moscow may want to exploit Kadyrov’s difficulties to install a more pliable figure as the region’s new leader. The large-scale invasion of Ukraine limits the Kremlin’s ability to manipulate regional elites in... MORE

Executive Summary:  Ethnic Chechens in Dagestan and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov have stepped up demands that Makhachkala live up to its promises to restore a Chechen district in Dagestan by the end of 2024. Doing so would likely require the Dagestani authorities to expel the... MORE

Executive Summary: To avoid mass mobilization, Moscow has called on Russian regions to start forming “volunteer battalions” to assist and even act in place of the regular armed forces. Battalions have formed in the North Caucasus, a region that suffered disproportionately high losses at the... MORE

Executive Summary: Since February 2022, underground militants in the North Caucasus have avoided going on the offensive, but recent events in the region suggest these groups have changed their minds. Militants in the North Caucasus are becoming more active—a development that Moscow blames on Ukraine... MORE