Executive Summary: The Armenian government allegedly foiled an attempted coup involving two prominent archbishops and several nationalists. The opposition, Catholicos of All Armenians Karekin II, and the Armenian Apostolic Church deny the allegations.   The announcement comes as tensions between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and the... MORE

Executive Summary: Officials from Abkhazia’s Foreign Ministry visited Syria on June 25 to advance political and economic ties with Damascus, highlighting ongoing diplomatic activity between the breakaway Georgian territory and one of its few international backers. Syria’s recognition of Abkhazia in 2018, likely influenced by... MORE

Executive Summary: A Russian raid in Ekaterinburg targeting ethnic Azerbaijanis on June 27 resulted in deaths, injuries, and allegations of torture. This ignited a severe diplomatic crisis, with Baku accusing Moscow of ethnic violence and launching a criminal investigation. Russia-Azerbaijan relations have been deteriorating since... MORE

Executive Summary: Italy’s increased bilateral engagement with the Georgian Dream government sharply contrasts with broader EU skepticism toward Tbilisi’s democratic backsliding. Rome’s approach is shaped by historical, cordial ties with Russia and its proxies; energy interests; and a sovereigntist outlook that downplays regime type in... MORE

Executive Summary: Badra Gunba, president of the breakaway Republic of Abkhazia, has reiterated the region’s intentions to establish a Russian naval base at the Port of Ochamchire on the eastern coast of the Black Sea. Moscow sees this move as essential due to successful Ukrainian... MORE

Executive Summary: Armenia faces a deepening power struggle as Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan openly attacks Catholicos Karekin II, the head of the Armenian Apostolic Church, intensifying long-standing tensions between the state and the Armenian Apostolic Church ahead of the 2026 elections. The conflict exposes constitutional... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is facing greater resistance to its military draft in the North Caucasus because of increasing quotas and the disproportionate impact of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine on the region. The Russian government is applying more repressive pressure on North Caucasians... MORE

Executive Summary: The Georgian Dream government announced that it will abolish the “Information Center on NATO and EU” on July 1, signaling its growing hostility toward Euro-Atlantic integration and aligning more closely with Kremlin interests. Georgian Dream has sidelined its ambitions for integration into NATO... MORE

Executive Summary Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s recent visit to Hungary, by personal invitation of his Hungarian counterpart, Viktor Orbán, underlines growing cooperation between Tbilisi and Budapest, as the European Union accuses the Georgian Dream government of suppressing democratic protests and violating human rights. Orbán... MORE

Executive Summary: Azerbaijan and Vietnam established an official strategic partnership during General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam Tô Lâm’s May 7–8 visit to Baku, signing major agreements in energy, defense, science, trade, and culture to expand bilateral cooperation. Key economic deals include energy... MORE