Executive Summary: Moscow recently carried out a counterterrorism operation against what it describes as Islamist radicals in Ingushetia—the smallest, poorest, and arguably most restive republic not only in the North Caucasus but also in the Russian Federation. The Kremlin took this step lest violence in... MORE

Executive Summary: Following the recent presidential elections, Azerbaijan turned its focus to the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) and its role in connecting the Turkic world, indicating that Baku does not intend to align with the West or Russia. The expansion of defense cooperation within... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow seeks to boost its struggling economy through increased development of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) as a real competitor to the Suez Canal and the Bosphorus Strait. Moscow wants the INSTC to open pathways to new markets that circumvent Western monitoring... MORE

Executive Summary: New Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze is playing a delicate balancing act of attempting to gain EU membership while reproaching the United States in public statements.  Kobakhidze’s strategy toward the West resembles the Kremlin’s approach: divide the West into two camps, Europe and... MORE

Executive Summary:  Armenia has announced it is suspending cooperation with the Moscow-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a signal that Yerevan may soon reduce or even end other forms of cooperation with Russia. The almost universal assumption that Armenia, because of its geographic location and... MORE

Executive Summary: Serbian President Alexander Vučić confirmed a new $300 million defense contract with Azerbaijan on February 6, following years of strategic agreements between the two countries. The new defense contract will give Azerbaijan a foothold in the Balkans, providing Baku with a path to... MORE

Executive Summary: The upcoming parliamentary elections in Georgia will sway the country either toward Europe or closer to Russia. Public opinion polls in Georgia show a divide among constituents, who have become drastically disillusioned with the current political parties and feel as though none of... MORE

Executive Summary:  Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev called for snap presidential elections to be held on February 7, citing the need for fresh elections following the restoration of the country’s territorial integrity over Karabakh. Aliyev faced little competition as he is perceived as widely popular after... MORE

Executive Summary: Iran and Russia have steadily strengthened their bilateral cooperation over the past couple of years, primarily based on the destruction of common adversaries, a shared ideological alignment, and expanded military collaboration. Tehran and Moscow have intensified their arms trade and technical assistance on... MORE

 Executive Summary: Russia has significantly increased its influence in Georgian business, particularly after the beginning of the war against Ukraine. More Russian businesses have opened in Georgia since the start of the war in Ukraine than in the past 30 years combined. Russian business penetration... MORE