Executive Summary: A month ago, Moscow feared it was losing its influence across the South Caucasus, most dramatically by pulling its “peacekeepers” early from Azerbaijan and some border guards from Armenia. Russia never lost the leverage that history, geography, and policy gave it and has... MORE

Executive Summary: Thousands of protestors demand an end to the delimitation and demarcation of the Gazakh–Tavush border between Armenia and Azerbaijan while pushing to remove Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan from power. An Archbishop of the Armenian Apostolic Church is leading these protests, raising questions... MORE

Executive Summary: Protests intensified in Georgia after the parliament approved the second reading of the reintroduced Russian-style “foreign agents” law, as police arrested dozens of protesters and several opposition leaders were beaten by unknown assailants. Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze refused to visit the United... MORE

Executive Summary:  Ethnic Chechens in Dagestan and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov have stepped up demands that Makhachkala live up to its promises to restore a Chechen district in Dagestan by the end of 2024. Doing so would likely require the Dagestani authorities to expel the... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s war against Ukraine has given Azerbaijan fresh motivation to strengthen relations with Central Asian countries to improve their collective trade, transit, and energy potential. Continued development and increased use of the Middle Corridor is central to Baku’s increased cooperation with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,... MORE

Executive Summary: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan described any breakthrough in normalizing relations with Türkiye as “epoch-making” for the region. Armenia has displayed a willingness to take criticism from Türkiye seriously, upsetting many in the Armenian diaspora who fear Pashinyan will make unilateral concessions similar... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow hopes the protests in Armenia about the return of four villages to Azerbaijan will spread and force Yerevan to slow its efforts to integrate with the West. The belief that Moscow is backing these protests is having the opposite effect, prompting Yerevan... MORE

Executive Summary: The ruling Georgian Dream party organized a march in favor of their foreign agents bill as a response to two weeks of continuous protests against the bill. Western leaders expressed concern for the foreign agents bill, threatening to impose sanctions against Georgia’s ruling... MORE

Executive Summary: To avoid mass mobilization, Moscow has called on Russian regions to start forming “volunteer battalions” to assist and even act in place of the regular armed forces. Battalions have formed in the North Caucasus, a region that suffered disproportionately high losses at the... MORE

Executive Summary: Tens of thousands of Georgians participated in a countrywide protest against the ruling Georgian Dream party’s reintroduction and attempt to pass the repressive and controversial “Transparency of Foreign Influence” law. Georgia’s Western partners have actively supported these protests and warned Georgian officials that... MORE