Executive Summary: Moscow hopes the protests in Armenia about the return of four villages to Azerbaijan will spread and force Yerevan to slow its efforts to integrate with the West. The belief that Moscow is backing these protests is having the opposite effect, prompting Yerevan... MORE

Executive Summary: On April 19, Armenia agreed to hand four contested villages back to Azerbaijan and continue talks on four more based on the 1991 Alma-Ata accord. Yerevan hailed this as the first step in improving bilateral talks, Western countries welcomed it as a step... MORE

Executive Summary: On April 16, Russia began withdrawing its peacekeeping troops from Karabakh—18 months before their deployment officially ends. This marks the first instance that Russian armed units have left the territory of a post-Soviet state voluntarily and earlier than officially planned. The Kremlin’s withdrawal... MORE

Executive Summary: Azerbaijan is increasing the pressure on Armenia to return eight border settlements— four villages and four exclaves—under Baku’s sovereignty. Azerbaijani officials and the expert community have repeatedly demanded the return of the four border villages, voicing optimism that the issue can be solved... MORE

Executive Summary Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s “Crossroads for Peace” initiative is struggling to gain any momentum largely due to the lack of direct consultations with Baku and Ankara. Azerbaijan and Türkiye are moving ahead with work on opening the Zangezur Corridor and trans-Iranian Aras... MORE

Executive Summary: Armenia and Azerbaijan’s recent discussion of the ownership of four border villages has stoked tensions regarding both countries’ territorial integrity. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has voiced his openness to ceding these villages to Baku and establishing peace in the region. The Armenian... MORE

Executive Summary: The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) has attempted to increase its influence by creating a permanent free-trade zone with Iran, entering talks with India on a free-trade agreement, and encouraging Uzbekistan to become a member. The EAEU has served as a way for Moscow... MORE

 Executive Summary: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg’s tour of the South Caucasus was closely observed by Moscow, whose centuries-old hegemony in the region is at stake. Armenia continues to pursue closer ties with the West, while Azerbaijan maintains a “multi-vector” foreign policy posture to avoid conflict... MORE

Executive Summary: New developments in the South Caucasus have opened a window for possible long-term rapprochement between Iran and Azerbaijan, especially on trade and transit matters. Baku seeks increased regional stability amid tense peace negotiations with Armenia and a falling out with some Western countries... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow fears that Armenia may demand that Russia pull its border guards from Yerevan’s international airport and close its military base at Gyumri, following Armenia’s suspension of its membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization. The Kremlin worries about losing influence in Armenia.... MORE