Executive Summary: Russia’s influence in the Caspian Sea littoral has declined since 2020 due to Moscow’s war against Ukraine diminishing Russian resources and international standing, regional conflicts and reordering, and the growing navies of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Iran. Türkiye has been instrumental in helping Azerbaijan... MORE

Executive Summary: On October 6, privately-owned Russian oil company RussNeft delivered 105,340 tons of Siberian Light crude to Georgia’s newly built, partially state-financed Kulevi refinery, its first full-cycle refinery capable of producing Euro-5 gasoline and diesel. Independent sources classify the vessel that delivered the oil... MORE

Executive Summary: On October 14, the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) upheld Tbilisi’s claim in the case Georgia v. Russia (IV) and ordered Russia to pay 253 million euros ($295 million) as compensation to Georgian citizens who were affected by the “borderization” process following... MORE

Executive Summary: Georgian Dream won all 64 municipalities in the October 4 local elections amid boycotts from two leading opposition parties, record-low turnout, and limited election monitoring, further consolidating its control in the last constitutionally mandated election until 2028. On October 20, the opposition party... MORE

Executive Summary: President Vladimir Putin has entrusted First Deputy Chief of Staff Sergei Kiriyenko with even greater responsibilities after relieving Dmitry Kozak of his duties as deputy head of Russia’s Presidential Administration. In recent years, Kiriyenko has significantly expanded his influence, both in managing domestic... MORE

Executive Summary: Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have expanded their diplomatic, economic, and security cooperation to the point that some in the region have begun to speak of them as a kind of “bloc” in opposition to those led by Moscow and Tehran. The trend reflects their... MORE

Executive Summary: Türkiye is advancing the $1.615 billion Eastern Türkiye Railway Infrastructure Development Project (ETMIC), which will modernize the Divrigi–Kars–Georgia line with electrification, signaling, and advanced traffic management to boost freight and regional growth. Ankara is also planning the Samsun–Trabzon–Sarpi high-speed line linking central Türkiye... MORE

Executive Summary: The October 7 Summit of Heads of State of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) emphasized the organization’s growing role, introducing the OTS+ format to deepen multi-vector foreign policy and advance major initiatives. Leaders discussed enhancing regional security through proposals such as a... MORE

In memory of Janusz Bugajski, friend, colleague, and promoter of Promethean Ideas Executive Summary: Moscow is increasingly alarmed by the spread of Prometheanism, a set of ideas developed in pre-war Poland that posits that the Muscovite state is an empire, joint efforts can best achieve... MORE

Executive Summary: Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party has expanded its efforts to criminalize dissent and punish the opposition by criminalizing protests and creating a blacklist of individuals barred from political office. To maintain a quasi-democratic façade, Georgian Dream managed to persuade one of the so-called... MORE